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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease
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Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease

机译：水传播疾病的广义繁殖数和模式预测

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摘要

Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit spatial modeling is made possible by widespread data mapping of hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, and sanitation, the precise condition under which a waterborne disease epidemic can start in a spatially explicit setting is still lacking. Here we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers fio be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix Go, explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset a generalized reproduction number Λ_0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G_0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G_0- Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G_0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology, and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.
机译：理解，预测和控制水传播疾病的爆发是公共卫生政策的关键目标，但由于感染模式受到空间结构和时间异步的影响，因此带来了具有挑战性的问题。尽管通过对水文学，交通基础设施，人口分布和卫生设施进行广泛的数据制图，可以进行明确的空间建模，但仍缺乏在空间明确的环境中开始传播水传播疾病的精确条件。在这里，我们表明，当通过主要和次要感染机制的网络连接本地定居点时，爆发的爆发既没有必要，也没有要求所有局部繁殖数量都大于1。为了确定发病条件，我们推导了繁殖矩阵Go的一般分析表达式，明确说明了人类住区的空间分布以及病原体通过水文和人类流动网络的传播。在疾病发作时，广义繁殖数Λ_0（G_0的主要特征值）必须大于1。我们还表明，复杂环境中的地理暴发模式与主要特征向量和G_0的光谱特性相关。针对2010年海地和2000年夸祖鲁-纳塔尔霍乱暴发的数据和计算，以及针对人口传播网络的计算，进行了测试。 G_0的特征向量为预测疾病的时空分布提供了一种有效的综合工具。网络连通性模型描述了水文，流行病学和维持人类流动性的社会行为之间的相互作用，因此被证明是紧急管理水传播感染的关键工具。

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    Marino Gatto; Lorenzo Mari; Enrico Bertuzzo; Renato Casagrandi; Lorenzo Righetto; Ignacio Rodriguez-lturbe; Andrea Rinaldo;

  • 作者单位

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy,Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy,Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;

    Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;

    Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy;

    Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;

    Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland,Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile ed Ambientale, University di Padova, 35131 Padua, Italy;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    ecohydrology; aquatic ecosystems; invasion; bifurcations;

    机译：生态水文学水生生态系统;侵入;分叉;

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