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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Determinants of lemming outbreaks
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Determinants of lemming outbreaks

机译：旅鼠暴发的决定因素

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Population outbreaks in tundra rodents have intrigued scientists for a century as a result of their spectacular appearances and their general lessons in ecology. One outstanding question that has led to competing hypotheses is why sympatric lemmings and voles differ in regularity and shape of their outbreaks. Lemming outbreaks may be lost for decades while vole populations maintain regular population cycles. Moreover, when lemming populations eventually irrupt, they do so more steeply than the vole populations. Norwegian lemmings exhibited a large-scale outbreak synchronously with gray-sided voles in Finnmark, northern Fen-noscandia, during 2006 to 2007 for the first time in two decades. Analyses of spatial variability of this outbreak across altitudinal gradients allowed us to identify determinants of the contrasting lemming and vole dynamics. The steeper lemming outbreak trajectories were caused by breeding and population growth during winter, when nonbreeding vole populations consistently declined. The differently shaped lemming and vole outbreaks appear to result from a particular demographic tactic of lemmings that evolved as an adaptation to the long and cold Arctic-Alpine winters. The lemming outbreak amplitude increased with altitude and vole density, indicating that lemming outbreaks are jointly facilitated by low temperatures and apparent mutualism with voles mediated by shared predators. High sensitivity to variation in climate and predation is likely to be the reasons why lemmings have more erratic population dynamics than sympatric voles. The combination of continued climatic warming and dampened vole cycles is expected to further decrease the frequency, amplitude, and geographic range of lemming outbreaks in tundra ecosystems.
机译：苔原啮齿动物的种群暴发已经使科学家们迷恋了一个世纪，这是因为它们具有壮观的外观和生态学的一般教训。导致相互竞争的假设的一个悬而未决的问题是，为何同伴圈鼠和田鼠在爆发的规律性和形式上有所不同。在田鼠种群维持正常种群周期的同时，蠕虫暴发可能会消失数十年。此外，当旅鼠种群最终爆发时，它们比田鼠种群更为陡峭。 2006年至2007年，挪威旅鼠在芬诺斯坎迪亚北部的芬马克市与灰侧田鼠同步出现了大规模暴发，这是二十年来的首次。对这次暴发在高度梯度上的空间变异性的分析，使我们能够确定成对的旅鼠和田鼠动力学的决定因素。旅鼠暴发的趋势更为陡峭是由于冬季繁殖和种群增长，此时非繁殖田鼠的数量持续下降。不同形状的旅鼠和田鼠暴发似乎是由于旅鼠的特定人口统计学策略所致，后者是适应北极和高山漫长而寒冷的冬季而演变而来的。旅鼠的爆发幅度随海拔和田鼠密度的增加而增加，这表明旅鼠的爆发是由低温和明显的与共有捕食者介导的田鼠的共生共同促进的。对气候和捕食的变化高度敏感可能是旅鼠比同伴田鼠具有更不稳定的种群动态的原因。持续的气候变暖和潮湿的田鼠周期相结合，有望进一步降低苔原生态系统中旅鼠暴发的频率，幅度和地理范围。

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