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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast
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Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

机译：气候和人口密度驱动整个挪威海岸上一个世纪的鳕鱼体型变化

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摘要

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod.
机译：要了解人口如何应对气候变化，就需要长期，高质量的数据集，这对于海洋系统而言是罕见的。我们从1919年开始在挪威Skagerrak海岸进行的调查中，使用独特的91年时间序列（超过100,000个单独的少年鳕鱼长度），估计了气候变暖对鳕鱼长度和长度变异性的影响。使用线性混合效应模型，我们考虑了空间种群结构和调查数据的嵌套结构，以揭示春季和夏季变暖对少年鳕鱼长度的相反影响。沿海斯卡格拉克（Skagerrak）夏季炎热，限制了青少年的生长。相比之下，较暖的春季会导致较大的鳕鱼幼体，队列中长度的变化较小，这可能是由于春季产卵期中温度驱动的收缩所致。仅在时间序列中最高的人口密度下，长度依赖于长度的减少才明显，这在过去十年中很少见到。如果由于全球变暖导致温度上升，则相反的温度效应的非线性表明，夏天变暖的负面影响将日益超过春天变暖的正面影响，沿海的Skagerrak将变得不适合大西洋鳕鱼。

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  • 作者

    Lauren A. Rogers; Leif C. Stige; Esben M.Olsen; Halvor Knutsen; Kung-Sik Chan; Nils Chr. Stenseth;

  • 作者单位

    School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195,Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway,Institute of Marine Research, Flodevigen, 4817 His, Norway;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway,Institute of Marine Research, Flodevigen, 4817 His, Norway;

    Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway,Institute of Marine Research, Flodevigen, 4817 His, Norway;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate variation; gadus morhua; density dependence; length distributions;

    机译：气候变化;杂食性;密度依赖性;长度分布;

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