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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
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Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

机译：多年冻土碳气候反馈加速全球变暖

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摘要

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new cir-cumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 PgC, depending on processes included in the .model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41-70 TgCH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.
机译：多年冻土中含有大量的有机碳，由于气候变暖导致呼吸频率提高，因此可以作为全球气候变化的积极反馈。我们已经使用了一种陆地生态系统模型，该模型包括多年冻土碳动态，抑制冻土层中的呼吸作用，从地表到多年冻土层的土壤碳的垂直混合以及洪水区的CH4排放，并且该模型更适合于新的cir-cumpolar土壤清单碳储量，以探索高纬度地区碳气候反馈的潜力。与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）的模型结果相反，如果包括多年冻土过程，到21世纪末，北纬60°以北的陆地生态系统可能会从二氧化碳的汇入变为汇入由排放情景特别报告（SRES）A2气候变化情景强制执行。在1860年至2100年之间，模型对组合的CO2施肥和气候变化的响应从68 Pg的汇变为27 + -7 Pg的汇，再到4 + -18 Pg的汇，取决于所使用的过程和参数值。由气候变化引起的碳综合变化从接近零（在先前模型估计的范围内）转变为气候导致的生态系统在25 + -3至85 + -16 PgC范围内的碳损失，具体取决于在.model中包含的过程中，最佳估计损失为62 + -7 PgC。据计算，高纬度地区的甲烷排放量将从34 Tg CH4 / y增加到41-70 TgCH4 / y，这是由于CO2施肥，多年冻土融化和变暖引起的CH4通量密度增加而部分被湿地减少所抵消。程度。

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  • 作者

    Charles D. Koven; Bruno Ringeval; Pierre Friedlingstein; Philippe Ciais; Patricia Cadule; Dmitry Khvorostyanov; Gerhard Krinner; Charles Tarnocai;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat a I'Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France,Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat a I'Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;

    College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom;

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat a I'Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;

    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat a I'Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;

    Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France;

    Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de I'Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble 1, Unite Mixte de Recherche 5183, F-38402 Grenoble, France;

    Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0C5;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    carbon cycle; land surface models; cryosphere; soil organic matter; active layer;

    机译：碳循环;地表模型;冰冻圈;土壤有机质;活动层;

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