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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds
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Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

机译:中亚鼠疫-野生生物-人类系统的动态受两个流行病学阈值控制

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摘要

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic re-emerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.
机译:鼠疫(由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起)是一种人畜共患的传染病,在世界各地的啮齿类动物种群中都有蓄水池。利用哈萨克斯坦关于瘟疫动力学的半个世纪的独特数据(1949-1995年),包括有关主要啮齿动物宿主水库(大沙鼠),主要病媒(跳蚤),人类病例以及外部(气候)情况的数据,我们分析了整个生态流行病学(鼠疫)鼠疫系统。我们表明,两个流行病学阈值量起着关键作用:一个阈值与宿主库中的动态有关,第二个阈值与鼠疫细菌向人类的溢出有关。

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