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The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

机译：气候变化与大规模人类危机的因果关系分析

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摘要

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in pre-industrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
机译：最近的研究表明，过去的气候变化与社会危机之间存在强烈的时间相关性。但是，尚未解决此关系的特定因果机制。我们探索了14种细粒度的农业生态，社会经济和人口统计学变量对欧洲公元1500-1800年气候波动的定量响应。结果表明，公元1560-1660年的降温造成了连续的农业生态，社会经济和人口灾难，从而导致了17世纪的普遍危机。我们确定了气候变化与人类危机之间的一系列因果关系。利用温度数据和气候驱动的经济变量，我们模拟了过去千年中欧洲和北半球定义的“黄金”和“黑暗”年龄的交替。我们的发现表明，在工业化前的欧洲和北半球，大规模的人类危机是气候变化的最终原因，而气候驱动的经济衰退是直接的原因。

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    David D. Zhang; Harry F. Lee; Cong Wang; Baosheng Li; Qing Pei; Jane Zhang; Yulun An;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Geography,The International Centre of China Development Studies, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,School of Geographic andEnvironmental Sciences, Guizhou Normal University, Guizhou 550001, China;

    Department of Geography,The International Centre of China Development Studies, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;

    Department of Finance, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China;

    Department of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China;

    Department of Geography,The International Centre of China Development Studies, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;

    South China Morning Post, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong;

    School of Geographic andEnvironmental Sciences, Guizhou Normal University, Guizhou 550001, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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