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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease
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Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease

机译：将全球气候和温度变化与推测的由疾病引起的两栖动物普遍减少联系起来

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The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (fid), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Nino climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Nino accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Nino episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.
机译：全球气候变化在生物多样性下降和传染病的出现中的作用仍然是有争议的，尤其是气候变化的影响在很大程度上被忽略了。例如，最近发现，气候变化和两栖动物普遍减少之间的拟议联系（很可能是由食糜菌Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis（fid）引起的）是微弱的，因为它基于时间混杂的相关性。在这里，我们提供了时间上没​​有混淆的证据，表明全球厄尔尼诺气候事件通过增加的区域温度变化而推动了Atelopus属中广泛的两栖动物损失，这可能会降低两栖动物对病原体的防御能力。在测试的26个气候变量中，只有与温度变化有关的因素才能解释被认为与Bd有关的下降的时空模式。气候下降的预测指标只有在控制了与流行病传播一致的模式之后（通过暂时性地降低数据趋势），才变得有意义。这种假定的传播占两栖动物损失时间变化的59％，而厄尔尼诺现象则占其余变化的59％。因此，仅凭这两个变量，我们就可以解释下降幅度的83％。鉴于全球气候变化似乎增加了温度的变异性，极端气候事件以及中太平洋太平洋地区厄尔尼诺现象的强度，气候变化可能加剧了两栖动物在世界范围内的神秘下降，大概是因为对疾病的易感性增加。这些结果表明，与气候变化有关的温度变异性的变化对生物多样性的丧失和疾病的发生可能与平均温度的变化一样重要。

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