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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming
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King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming

机译：企鹅国王人口受到南大洋变暖的威胁

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摘要

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26℃ warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.
机译：海鸟是海洋生态系统变化的敏感指标，可能整合和/或放大气候强迫对食物链较低水平的影响。当前有关气候变化对企鹅影响的知识主要基于使用鳍状肢带识别出的南极鸟类。尽管鳍状肢带帮助回答了许多有关企鹅生物学的问题，但它们在某些企鹅物种中显示出有害作用。在这里，我们介绍了一种亚极物种，国王企鹅（Aptenodytes patagonicus），基于未成群的鸟类对气候对生存和繁殖的影响的可靠结果，而是由皮下电子标签标记。我们表明，温暖的事件对这只海鸟的繁殖成功和成年生存均产生负面影响。但是，观察到的效果是复杂的，因为它会在几个时空水平上影响企鹅。繁殖表明，在厄尔尼诺南方涛动的暖化阶段，强迫会立即做出反应，从而影响到该殖民地附近的粮食供应。相反，成年生存率随海平面温度的偏远而降低（即，在冰块的北部边界（其冬季觅食地）发生了为期2年的滞后变暖）。我们建议，这种延迟可能是由于猎物的补充和丰富之间的延迟而造成的，并根据企鹅国王的特定1年繁殖周期进行了调整。推导的种群动态模型表明，温度升高0.26℃，成活率下降了9％。我们的发现表明，在当前全球变暖的预测下，企鹅王种群处于灭绝的危险之中。

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