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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >International Migration Beyond Gravity: A Statistical Model For Use In Population Projections
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International Migration Beyond Gravity: A Statistical Model For Use In Population Projections

机译：超越重力的国际移民：用于人口预测的统计模型

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摘要

International migration will play an increasing role in the demographic future of most nations if fertility continues to decline globally. We developed an algorithm to project future numbers of international migrants from any country or region to any other. The proposed generalized linear model (GLM) used geographic and demographic independent variables only (the population and area of origins and destinations of migrants, the distance between origin and destination, the calendar year, and indicator variables to quantify nonrandom characteristics of individual countries). The dependent variable, yearly numbers of migrants, was quantified by 43653 reports from 11 countries of migration from 228 origins and to 195 destinations during 1960-2004. The final GLM based on all data was selected by the Bayesian information criterion. The number of migrants per year from origin to destination was proportional to (population of origin)~(0.86)(area of origin)~(-0.21)(population of destination)~(0.36)(distance)~(-0.97), multiplied by functions of year and country-specific indicator variables. The number of emigrants from an origin depended on both its population and its population density. For a variable initial year and a fixed terminal year 2004, the parameter estimates appeared stable. Multiple R~2, the fraction of variation in log numbers of migrants accounted for by the starting model, improved gradually with recentness of the data: R~2 = 0.57 for data from 1960 to 2004, R~2 = 0.59 for 1985-2004, R~2 = 0.61 for 1995-2004, and R~2 = 0.64 for 2000-2004. The migration estimates generated by the model may be embedded in deterministic or stochastic population projections.
机译：如果全球生育率持续下降，国际移徙将在大多数国家的人口未来中扮演越来越重要的角色。我们开发了一种算法，可以预测从任何国家或地区到其他国家的未来国际移民人数。拟议的广义线性模型（GLM）仅使用地理和人口统计独立变量（移民的原籍人口和目的地的人口和面积，原籍与目的地之间的距离，历年和指标变量来量化各个国家的非随机特征）。 1960-2004年期间，通过11653个国家的228份移民到195个目的地的43653份报告对因变量，即每年的移民人数进行了量化。通过贝叶斯信息准则选择了基于所有数据的最终GLM。每年从原籍到目的地的移民人数与（原籍人口）〜（0.86）（原籍地区）〜（-0.21）（目的地人口）〜（0.36）（距离）〜（-0.97）成正比，乘以年份函数和特定国家的指标变量。来自某个原籍的移民数量取决于其人口及其人口密度。对于可变的初始年份和固定的固定年份2004，参数估计值似乎稳定。倍数R〜2，即初始模型所占移民对数数量变化的比例，随着数据的最新性而逐渐改善：1960年至2004年数据的R〜2 = 0.57，1985-2004年的R〜2 = 0.59 ，对于1995-2004年，R〜2 = 0.61，对于2000-2004年，R〜2 = 0.64。由模型生成的迁移估计可以嵌入确定性或随机的人口预测中。

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