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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Measuring The Effectiveness Of Protected Area Networks In Reducing Deforestation
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Measuring The Effectiveness Of Protected Area Networks In Reducing Deforestation

机译：评估保护区网络减少森林砍伐的有效性

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Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforestation spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demonstrate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially improved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching methods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Rica's renowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overestimate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to unprotected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assumptions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.
机译：减少热带森林砍伐的全球努力在很大程度上取决于建立保护区。衡量这些地区的有效性非常困难，因为无法直接观察到在没有法律保护的情况下原本会发生的森林砍伐量。评估保护区有效性的常规方法可能会产生偏差，因为保护不是随机分配的，并且因为保护会导致森林砍伐的溢出（位移）到附近的森林。我们证明，通过控制沿可观察到的维度的偏差，测量空间溢出以及测试估算值对潜在隐藏偏差的敏感性，可以大大提高有效性的估算值。我们使用匹配方法评估哥斯达黎加著名的保护区系统在1960年至1997年之间对森林砍伐的影响。我们发现，保护措施可以减少森林砍伐：如果没有保护，大约有10％的保护森林将被砍伐。评估保护影响的常规方法无法控制与保护和森林砍伐相关的可观察到的协变量，因而大大高估了避免的森林砍伐（根据我们的估计，超过65％）。我们还发现，从保护林到未保护林的森林砍伐溢出量可以忽略不计。我们的结论对于潜在的隐性偏见以及建模假设的变化都是有力的。我们的结果表明，采用适当的经验方法，保护科学家和政策制定者可以更好地理解人与自然系统之间的关系，并以此为指导来保护重要的生态系统服务的尝试。

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