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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Phylogenetic Trees And The Future Of Mammalian Biodiversity
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Phylogenetic Trees And The Future Of Mammalian Biodiversity

机译：系统发育树和哺乳动物生物多样性的未来

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Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.
机译：系统发育描述物种的起源和历史。但是，它们也可以帮助预测物种的命运，因此可以作为管理生物多样性未来的有用工具。本文首先概述了如何结合系统发育，地理和性状信息，以阐明当前的哺乳动物多样性模式及其产生方式。最近的多样化率和常设多样性显示出不同的地理格局，表明多样性的摇篮随着时间的推移而移动。灭绝风险的模式既反映了哺乳动物谱系之间的生物学差异，也反映了区域之间的威胁强度差异。系统发育比较分析表明，对于小型哺乳动物，灭绝风险主要取决于物种的居住地和威胁强度，而对于大型哺乳动物，生态差异也起着重要作用。这种建模方法可以识别其内在生物学使其特别容易受到人类压力影响的物种。我们概述了如何扩展该方法，以考虑人为驱动因素的未来趋势，确定哺乳动物保护的未来战场以及可能造成的人员伤亡。该框架可以帮助强调在不同的未来气候和社会经济情景中进行选择的后果。最后，我们讨论优先级设置，展示多样化的替代货币如何建议完全不同的优先级。我们认为，旨在最大化长期进化反应是不合适的，保护规划需要考虑成本和收益，并且对基本完好无损的系统进行主动保护应该是平衡策略的一部分。

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