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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content
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Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content

机译:模拟和观察到的海洋温度和热量含量的变化

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摘要

Observations show both a pronounced increase in ocean heat content (OHC) over the second half of the 20th century and substantial OHC variability on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Although climate models are able to simulate overall changes in OHC, they are generally thought to underestimate the amplitude of OHC variability. Using simulations of 20th century climate performed with 13 numerical models, we demonstrate that the apparent discrepancy between modeled and observed variability is largely explained by accounting for changes in observational coverage and instrumentation and by including the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our work does not support the recent claim that the 0- to 700-m layer of the global ocean experienced a substantial OHC decrease over the 2003 to 2005 time period. We show that the 2003-2005 cooling is largely an artifact of a systematic change in the observing system, with the deployment of Argo floats reducing a warm bias in the original observing system.
机译:观测结果表明,在20世纪下半叶,海洋热量含量(OHC)显着增加,并且在年际至十年间的时间尺度上,OHC的变化很大。尽管气候模型能够模拟OHC的总体变化,但通常认为它们低估了OHC变异性的幅度。通过使用13个数值模型进行的20世纪气候模拟,我们证明了建模变异和观测变异之间的明显差异在很大程度上可以通过解释观测范围和仪器的变化以及包括火山爆发的影响来解释。我们的工作不支持最近的说法,即在2003年至2005年期间,全球海洋0至700米层的OHC大幅下降。我们显示2003-2005年的降温很大程度上是观测系统发生系统性变化的产物,而Argo浮标的部署减少了原始观测系统中的热偏差。

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