...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Smallpox transmission and control: Spatial dynamics in Great Britain
【24h】

Smallpox transmission and control: Spatial dynamics in Great Britain

机译：天花的传播与控制：英国的空间动态

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Contingency planning for the possible deliberate reintroduction of smallpox has become a priority for many national public health organizations in recent years. We used an individual-based spatial model of smallpox transmission in Great Britain and census-derived journey-to-work data to accurately describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of an outbreak of smallpox in the community. A Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm was developed to generate sociospatial contact networks that were consistent with demographic and commuting data. We tested the sensitivity of model predictions to key epidemiological parameters before choosing three representative scenarios from within the range explored. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics for these illustrative scenarios and assessed the efficacy of symptomatic case isolation, contact tracing with vaccination, and reactive regional mass vaccination as policy options for control. We conclude that case isolation and contact tracing with vaccination would be sufficient to halt ongoing transmission rapidly, unless policy effectiveness was compromised by resource or other constraints. A slight reduction in the expected size and duration of an outbreak could be achieved with regional mass vaccination, but these benefits are small and do not justify the high numbers of vaccine doses required and their associated negative side effects.
机译：近年来，可能有意重新引入天花的应急计划已成为许多国家公共卫生组织的当务之急。我们在英国使用了基于个体的天花传播空间模型，并根据人口普查得出的上班途中数据，准确地描述了社区爆发天花的时空动态。开发了马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法来生成与人口统计数据和通勤数据一致的社会空间联系网络。在从所研究的范围内选择三种代表性方案之前，我们测试了模型预测对关键流行病学参数的敏感性。我们检查了这些说明性情况的时空动态，并评估了有症状病例隔离，接种疫苗的接触者追踪和反应性区域大规模疫苗接种作为控制策略的有效性。我们得出的结论是，除非通过资源或其他限制因素削弱政策有效性，否则隔离病例和接种疫苗进行接触者追踪就足以迅速阻止正在进行的传播。局部大规模疫苗接种可以使预期的暴发规模和持续时间略有减少，但是这些好处很小，不能证明需要高剂量的疫苗及其相关的不良副作用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号