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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.
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Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

机译：当地人口的空间同步性随着最近北半球的气候趋势而增加。

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摘要

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.
机译：根据生态学理论，随着环境条件在空间上变得更加同步，其动态受环境相关性约束的种群面临着更大的灭绝风险。这一预测与研究气候变化的生态后果高度相关。例如，最近的经验研究表明，大规模气候使淡水和陆地系统的营养相互作用和种群动态在广阔的空间尺度上同步。在这里，我们对当地天气和格陵兰驯鹿种群动态的百年尺度，空间复制数据进行了分析。我们的结果表明，局部气候的空间自相关随着大规模气候变暖而增加。到20世纪末，当地驯鹿种群的空间同步性增加又与环境条件的空间同步性增加相匹配。我们的结果表明，环境条件下的空间同步性以及受其影响的种群随着时间变化很大，并且会随着气候变暖而增加。我们建议，如果未来的变暖可以增加种群同步性，那么也可能增加灭绝的风险。

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