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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Diversity in pathogenicity can cause outbreaks of meningococcal disease.
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Diversity in pathogenicity can cause outbreaks of meningococcal disease.

机译：致病性的多样性可能导致脑膜炎球菌疾病的爆发。

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摘要

Neisseria meningitidis, the meningococcus, is a major cause of bacterial meningitis and septicemia worldwide. Infection in most cases leads to asymptomatic carriage and only rarely to disease. Meningococcal disease often occurs in outbreaks, which are both sporadic and highly unpredictable. The occurrence of disease outbreaks in a host population in which the etiological agent is widely carried is not well understood. A potential explanation lies in the fact that meningococci are diverse with respect to disease-causing potential. We formulated a stochastic mathematical model to investigate whether diversity of the bacterial population is related to outbreaks of meningococcal disease. In the model, strains that occasionally cause the disease appear repeatedly in a population dominated by a nonpathogenic strain. When the pathogenicity, i.e., the disease-causing potential, of the pathogenic lineage was low, the model shows distinct outbreaks, the size distribution of the outbreaks follows a power law, andthe ratio of the variance to the mean number of cases is high. Analysis of notification data of meningococcal disease showed that the ratio of the variance to the mean was significantly higher for meningococcal diseases than for other bacterial invasive diseases. This result lends support to the hypothesis that outbreaks of meningococcal disease are caused by diversity in the pathogenicity of meningococcal strains.
机译：脑膜炎球菌脑膜炎奈瑟氏球菌是全世界细菌性脑膜炎和败血病的主要原因。在大多数情况下，感染会导致无症状携带，而很少导致疾病。脑膜炎球菌病通常发生在暴发中，既是零星的，也是高度不可预测的。病因广泛传播的宿主人群中疾病暴发的发生还没有被很好地理解。潜在的解释在于，脑膜炎球菌在致病潜力方面存在差异。我们制定了一个随机数学模型来调查细菌种群的多样性是否与脑膜炎球菌疾病的爆发有关。在该模型中，偶尔引起疾病的菌株在以非致病性菌株为主的人群中反复出现。当致病谱系的致病性（即致病潜力）较低时，该模型显示出明显的暴发，暴发的大小分布遵循幂律，方差与平均病例数的比率高。对脑膜炎球菌疾病通报数据的分析表明，脑膜炎球菌疾病的方差与平均值之比显着高于其他细菌浸润性疾病。该结果支持以下假设：脑膜炎球菌疾病的爆发是由脑膜炎球菌菌株的致病性多样性引起的。

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