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Fuzzy probability on reliability study of nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment: A review

机译：核电厂概率安全评估可靠性研究的模糊概率

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摘要

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a graphical model which has been widely used as a deductive tool for nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The conventional one assumes that basic events of fault trees always have precise failure probabilities or failure rates. However, in real-world applications, this assumption is still arguable. For example, there is a case where an extremely hazardous accident has never happened or occurs infrequently. Therefore, reasonable historical failure data are unavailable or insufficient to be used for statistically estimating the reliability characteristics of their components. To deal with this problem, fuzzy probability approaches have been proposed and implemented. However, those existing approaches still have limitations, such as lack of fuzzy gate representations and incapability to generate probabilities greater than 1.0E-3. Therefore, a review on the current implementations of fuzzy probabilities in the NPP PSA is necessary. This study has categorized two types of fuzzy probability approaches, i.e. fuzzy based FTA and fuzzy hybrid FTA. This study also confirms that the fuzzy based FTA should be used when the uncertainties are the main focus of the FTA. Meanwhile, the fuzzy hybrid FTA should be used when the reliability of basic events of fault trees can only be expressed by qualitative linguistic terms rather than numerical values. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：故障树分析（FTA）是一种图形模型，已被广泛用作核电厂（NPP）概率安全评估（PSA）的演绎工具。传统的假设是故障树的基本事件总是具有精确的故障概率或故障率。但是，在实际应用中，这一假设仍然值得商able。例如，存在从未发生过或很少发生极度危险的事故的情况。因此，合理的历史故障数据不可用或不足以用于统计估计其组件的可靠性特征。为了解决这个问题，已经提出并实现了模糊概率方法。但是，这些现有方法仍然存在局限性，例如缺乏模糊门表示以及无法生成大于1.0E-3的概率。因此，有必要对NPP PSA中模糊概率的当前实现进行回顾。这项研究将模糊概率方法分为两种类型，即基于模糊的FTA和模糊混合FTA。这项研究还证实，当不确定性是FTA的主要重点时，应使用基于模糊的FTA。同时，当故障树的基本事件的可靠性只能由定性语言术语而不是数值表示时，应使用模糊混合FTA。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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