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首页> 外文期刊>Promet-traffic & transportation >DEPENDENCE OF THE FUTURE ELDERLY ON PRIVATE CARS: A CASE STUDY IN BEIJING
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DEPENDENCE OF THE FUTURE ELDERLY ON PRIVATE CARS: A CASE STUDY IN BEIJING

机译：老年人对私家车的依赖：以北京为例

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摘要

With the aging of population in the world, understanding the travel demands of the elderly is important. In China, the aging society is in the process of forming. Meanwhile the urban motorization has just started. The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence of the future elderly on private cars. The data used here come from a stated preference (SP) survey of the young and middle-aged residents in the capital of China, Beijing. The influencing factors on the car ownership and mode choices of the future elderly are analysed based on the ordered logit model and MNL model, respectively. The effect of uncertainty in respondents' statements on the car usage has been also investigated. The results show that the future elderly in Beijing become increasingly dependent on private cars. It is also found that younger people have higher propensities to own private cars and to make use of driving after the age of 65. Moreover, improving public transport services contributes to an increased rider-ship of public transport by the future elderly. The findings in this paper can provide valuable references for the aging society when making transport policies in Beijing.
机译：随着世界人口的老龄化，了解老年人的出行需求非常重要。在中国，老龄化社会正在形成中。同时，城市机动化才刚刚开始。本文的目的是调查未来老年人对私家车的依赖性。这里使用的数据来自对中国首都北京的中青年居民的既定偏好（SP）调查。基于有序logit模型和MNL模型，分别分析了影响未来老年人汽车保有量和模式选择的因素。还调查了受访者陈述中的不确定性对汽车使用的影响。结果表明，北京未来的老年人越来越依赖私家车。还发现，年轻人在65岁以后拥有私家车和利用驾驶的倾向更高。此外，改善公共交通服务有助于未来的老年人增加乘坐公共交通工具的机会。本文的研究结果可为北京制定交通政策时的老龄化社会提供有价值的参考。

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