Biases and Fallacies, Memories and Predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)

Dale Griffin; Roger Buehler

首页> 外文期刊>Psychological Bulletin >Biases and Fallacies, Memories and Predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)

【24h】

Biases and Fallacies, Memories and Predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)

机译：偏见和谬误，记忆和预测：评论Roy，Christenfeld和McKenzie（2005）

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical account such as the memory bias account of optimistic time predictions. However, such comparisons can be misleading when they do not carefully consider the domain limitations of the respective theories. M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, and C. R. M. McKenzie (2005) have contrasted the memory bias and planning fallacy accounts in their ability to explain the prevalence and degree of optimistic bias in time predictions. However, the authors argue that many of the points of distinction they draw are actually reflections of the domain limitations of the 2 theories. The authors clarify the definition and scope of the planning fallacy account and show how the apparent contradictions diminish or disappear.

机译：比较理论测试是评估新理论帐户（例如乐观时间预测的记忆偏差帐户）的价值的有用方法。但是，如果这样的比较没有仔细考虑各个理论的领域限制，则可能会产生误导。 M. M. Roy，N。J. S. Christenfeld和C. R. M. McKenzie（2005）在解释时间预测中普遍存在的乐观偏见和程度方面比较了记忆偏见和计划谬误说明。但是，作者认为，他们得出的许多区别点实际上反映了这两种理论的领域局限性。作者阐明了计划谬误说明的定义和范围，并说明了明显的矛盾是如何减少或消失的。

著录项

来源
《Psychological Bulletin》 |2005年第5期|p.757-760|共4页
作者
Dale Griffin; Roger Buehler;
展开▼
作者单位

Sauder School of Business, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2, Canada;

展开▼
收录信息
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类心理学;
关键词
prediction; optimistic bias; memory bias; planning fallacy;

机译：预测;乐观偏见;记忆偏见;计划谬误;

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. On the depth of oceanic earthquakes: Brief comments on "The thermal structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere", by McKenzie, D., Jackson, J. and Priestley, K., Earth Plan. Sci. Let., 233, [2005], 337-349 [J] . Geli L, Sclater J Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System . 2008,第3a4期

机译：关于海洋地震的深度：McKenzie，D.，Jackson，J.和Priestley，K. Earth Plan对“海洋和大陆岩石圈的热结构”的简要评论。科学Let。，233，[2005]，337-349
2. On the depth of oceanic earthquakes: Brief comments on "The thermal structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere", by McKenzie, D., Jackson, J. and Priestley, K., Earth Plan. Sci. Let., 233, [2005], 337-349 [J] . Geli L, Sclater J Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System . 2008,第3a4期

机译：关于海洋地震的深度：McKenzie，D.，Jackson，J.和Priestley，K. Earth Plan对“海洋和大陆岩石圈的热结构”的简要评论。科学Let。，233，[2005]，337-349
3. The Broad Applicability of Memory Bias and Its Coexistence With the Planning Fallacy: Reply to Griffin and Buehler (2005) [J] . Michael M. Roy, Nicholas J. S. Christenfeld, Craig R. M. McKenzie Psychological Bulletin . 2005,第5期

机译：记忆偏差的广泛适用性及其与计划谬误的共存：回复格里芬和比勒（2005）
4. Fallacies and Biases when Adding Effort Estimates [C] . Jorgensen M. Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications . 2014

机译：添加工作量估算时的谬误和偏见
5. Subjective Moral Biases & Fallacies: Developing Scientifically & Practically Adequate Moral Analogues of Cognitive Heuristics & Biases [D] . Herman, Mark. 2019

机译：主观的道德偏差与谬误 - 科学习惯的认知启发式和偏见的道德类似物
6. An interview with Nobel laureate Roy Glauber Physics 2005 [O] . Roy Glauber 2009

机译：诺贝尔奖获得者Roy Glauber的访谈物理学2005年
7. On the depth of oceanic earthquakes: Brief comments on “The thermal structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere”, by McKenzie, D., Jackson, J. and Priestley, K., Earth Plan. Sci. Let., 233, 2005, 337–349 [O] . Louis Géli, John Sclater 2008

机译：论海洋地震的深度：关于“海洋与大陆岩石圈的热结构”的简要评论，麦克伦扎内，D.，杰克逊，J。和普里斯特利，克。 SCI。让。，233，2005，337-349

Biases and Fallacies, Memories and Predictions: Comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅