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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Systematic Procedural and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Method for Forecasting Large (M > 5) Earthquake Events in Southern California
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Systematic Procedural and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Method for Forecasting Large (M > 5) Earthquake Events in Southern California

机译：模式信息学方法用于预测南加州大（M> 5）地震事件的系统程序和敏感性分析

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摘要

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for ``predictive goodness'' and analyzing possible variations in the proposed procedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on the quality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combining catalogs from regions of different seismic rates.
机译：文献中的最新研究提出了一种新的地震预报方法，该方法基于实值希尔伯特空间中的时变系统状态向量表示局部地震活动的时空模式，并从中推导有关未来时空波动的信息。状态向量的相位角。尽管此模式信息学（PI）方法的成功率令人鼓舞，但该方法仍处于起步阶段。程序分析，统计测试，参数敏感性调查和优化仍然需要执行。在本文中，我们尝试通过开发用于``预测良好''的定量值并分析拟议程序中可能的变化来优化PI方法。此外，我们尝试量化对历史数据输入目录质量的系统依赖性，并开发出组合来自不同地震发生率区域的目录的方法。

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  • 来源
    《Pure and Applied Geophysics》 |2006年第12期|2433-2454|共22页
  • 作者

    J. R. Holliday; J. B. Rundle; K. F. Tiampo; W. Klein; A. Donnellan;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Computational Science and Engineering University of CaliforniaDepartment of Physics University of California;

    Center for Computational Science and Engineering University of CaliforniaDepartment of Physics University of California;

    Department of Earth Sciences University of Western Ontario;

    Department of Physics Boston University;

    Earth and Space Sciences Division Jet Propulsion Laboratory;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Pattern Informatics; earthquake forecasting;

    机译：模式信息学;地震预报;

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