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Demarcation and Scaling of Long-term Seismogenesis

机译：长期地震发生的分界和扩展

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摘要

A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase (Ψ) phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (A P ) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (T P ) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope A P T P and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet A P and T P are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that A P is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and T P by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both T P and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes.
机译：通过对长期前兆尺度增加（Ψ）现象的观测，确定了与大浅层地震有关的小地震活动的时空范围，该现象量化了地震发生的三阶段断层模型。包括主要地震震源区在内的边界被划定为来自四个地区的47次地震，构造体制范围从俯冲到大陆碰撞和大陆变换。地震的范围从5.8到8.2，包括加利福尼亚的圣安德烈亚斯系统，希腊的希腊弧区和新西兰的24个最近的6.4级及以上的主震，以及最近的六个主震。在日本的太平洋弧区，强度为7.4以上。还包括在日本神户（1995年，震级7.2），土耳其伊兹密特（1999年，震级7.4）和日本鸟取W（2000，震级7.3）发生的破坏性地震。时空包络中的空间（AP ）相对于尺度增加进行了优化，而时间（TP ）是尺度开始发生与地震发生之间的间隔。发现包络线A P T P 与地震的强度之间存在很强的相关性。因此，得出的结论是，包络中包含的一组前震是发震过程所固有的。然而，AP 和TP 的相关性很弱，这表明AP 受静态条件（如地质结构和岩性）的影响，而TP 受差异的影响在动态条件下，例如板速。在其他比例关系中，一方面发现前震的地震震级，另一方面，T P 和主要地震震级之间存在预测回归。因此，这里应用于回顾性分析的方法可能适用于大地震的发生地点，时间和震级的远程预测。

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