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Method for Forecasting Fluctuation in Railway Passenger Demand for High-speed Rail Services

机译：高铁铁路旅客需求波动预测方法

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摘要

In order to plan high-speed rail transport services efficiently, it is necessary to be able to forecast fluctuations in passenger demand based on historical ridership data. Forecasting is difficult however, because of the number of components making up passenger demand. An effective way to forecast demand therefore should be to decompose these fluctuations into several independent demand components, which can then be forecast individually. This study applied an independent component analysis to decompose the fluctuation into several independent components. A method was then developed to forecast the fluctuation in passenger demand based on actual ridership data, calendar array, and number of people mobilized for large events.
机译：为了有效地规划高铁运输服务，必须能够根据历史乘车数据预测客运需求的波动。但是，由于组成旅客需求的要素数量众多，因此很难进行预测。因此，预测需求的有效方法应该是将这些波动分解为几个独立的需求组成部分，然后可以分别进行预测。这项研究应用独立成分分析将波动分解为几个独立成分。然后开发了一种方法，可根据实际乘车数据，日历表和为大型活动而动员的人数来预测乘客需求的波动。

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