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首页> 外文期刊>The quarterly review of economics and finance >Catching the mirage: The shadow impact of financial crises
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Catching the mirage: The shadow impact of financial crises

机译：赶上海市rage楼：金融危机的阴影影响

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This paper examines the dynamics of the shadow economy in times of financial crises. First, we estimate the size of the shadow economy in nine developing countries using energy consumption as a proxy for total economic activity. We show that our proposed proxy performs better than the conventional proxy of electricity consumption. In addition, given that financial crises usually overlap; a fact that is overlooked by existing literature, we construct a zero-one index to measure the intensity of a given shock. To explain the shadow economy impact of financial crises, we employ a set of country-specific VAR models and exploit their impulse responses. To this end, the paper finds empirical evidence of the countercyclical behaviour of the shadow economy, which suggests its buffering role in time financial crises. We show that our results are not sensitive to the method used to measure the size of the shadow economy. Finally, we build on these results to draw some policy recommendations.
机译：本文研究了金融危机时期影子经济的动态。首先，我们用能源消耗替代全部经济活动来估算九个发展中国家的影子经济规模。我们表明，我们提出的代理比传统的用电代理性能更好。此外，鉴于金融危机通常是重叠的；现有文献已忽略了这一事实，我们构建了一个零一指数来衡量给定冲击的强度。为了解释金融危机对影子经济的影响，我们采用了一组针对特定国家的VAR模型，并利用了它们的冲动响应。为此，本文找到了影子经济逆周期行为的经验证据，这表明了影子经济在时间金融危机中的缓冲作用。我们表明，我们的结果对用于衡量影子经济规模的方法并不敏感。最后，我们基于这些结果得出一些政策建议。

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