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首页> 外文期刊>The quarterly review of economics and finance >On animal spirits and economic decisions: Value-at-Risk and Value-within-Reach as measures of risk and return
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On animal spirits and economic decisions: Value-at-Risk and Value-within-Reach as measures of risk and return

机译：关于动物精神和经济决策：作为风险和回报的量度的风险价值和实现中的价值

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Let us suppose that presently unimagined is possible, that "the unexpected may happen" (Marshall (1920). Principles of economics, McMillan, London, p. 347). Then "human decisions affecting the future, whether personal, political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation since the basis for making such calculations does not exist" (Keynes (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money, Harcourt Brace, New York, NY, pp. 162-163) and "individual initiative will only be adequate when reasonable calculation is supplemented and supported by animal spirits" (Keynes (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money, Harcourt Brace, New York, NY, p. 162)-by "a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction" (Keynes (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money, Harcourt Brace, New York, NY, p. 161). It is intended here to examine an investment's Value-at-Risk as a reasonable calculation of the worst threat an action appears to make possible, and its return counterpart, referred to as the investment's Value-within-Reach, as a reasonable calculation of the best hope an action appears to offer. In exploring the extension of the Value-at-Risk approach from applications to investments in financial assets to applications to investments in real assets, the properties of Value-at-Risk as a risk measure are reviewed. Recognizing that Value-at-Risk focuses exclusively on downside risk, a complementary set of properties is specified which is shown to be necessary and sufficient for the acceptance of Value-within-Reach as a measure of return. This note concludes with remarks on a distribution's focus-values, consisting of the distribution's Value-at-Risk and Value-within-Reach, as reasonable calculation of a course of action's risk and return.
机译：让我们假设，当前无法想象的可能性是“意外的可能发生”（Marshall（1920）。经济学原理，麦克米伦，伦敦，第347页）。然后，“影响未来的人的决定，无论是个人的，政治的还是经济的，都不能依靠严格的数学期望，因为不存在进行这种计算的基础”（凯恩斯（Keynes，1936年）。就业，利息和金钱的一般理论，Harcourt Brace ，纽约，纽约，第162-163页）和“只有在动物精神的补充和支持下进行合理的计算时，个人的主动性才足够。”（凯恩斯（Keynes，1936年）。就业，利息和金钱的一般理论，哈考特·布雷斯（Harcourt Brace）纽约，纽约，第162页）—“一种自发地要求采取行动，而不是无所作为”（凯恩斯（Keynes，1936年）。就业，利息和金钱的一般理论，哈考特·布雷斯，纽约，纽约，第161页）。本文旨在检查投资的风险价值，作为对某项行动似乎可能造成的最严重威胁的合理计算，并将其回报对应物（称为投资的收益内价值）作为对某行为的合理计算。最有希望采取行动的希望。在探索风险价值方法从应用程序到金融资产投资的扩展到应用程序到实物资产投资的扩展时，将风险价值的属性作为一种风险度量进行了回顾。认识到“风险价值”仅侧重于下行风险，因此指定了一组补充属性，这些属性被证明对于接受“收益中的价值”作为回报度量是必要和充分的。本说明最后以有关分布的焦点值的注释作为对行动过程的风险和收益的合理计算，该注释由分布的风险值和实在价值组成。

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