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Oil exports and the Iranian economy

机译：石油出口与伊朗经济

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This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment-output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.
机译：本文介绍了使用1979Q1-2006Q4期间新的季度数据集估算的伊朗经济的误差校正宏观计量经济模型。它基于作者Esfahani，Mohaddes和Pesaran（印刷中）的最新论文，该论文为主要石油出口经济体建立了理论上的长期增长模型。本文中包含的核心变量是实际产出，实际货币余额，通货膨胀，汇率，石油出口和外国实际产出，尽管在子模型中也分析了投资和消费的作用。本文为存在两个长期关系找到了明确的证据：该理论所预测的输出方程和以通货膨胀为（缺失）市场利率的代理的标准实际货币需求方程。结果表明，从长期来看，实际产量受石油出口和国外产量的影响。但是，还发现通货膨胀对实际GDP具有长期的显着负面影响，这表明经济效率低下，并且通货膨胀与投资产出比之间存在负相关关系。最后，冲动反应的结果表明，伊朗经济很快适应了外国产出和石油出口的冲击，这可能部分是由于伊朗金融市场相对欠发达的性质。

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