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Mobility and the dynamics of poverty in Iran: Evidence from the 1992-1995 panel survey

机译：伊朗的流动性和贫困动态：1992-1995年面板调查的证据

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摘要

In the last three decades, revolutionary Iran has experienced large shocks to its political and economic system with likely effects on poverty, inequality, and economic mobility. While poverty has declined, inequality has remained relatively high and stable over nearly four decades. In this paper, for the first time, we examine poverty and inequality in a dynamic context using a 4-year panel data, collected during 1992-1995. We show that short-term income mobility is relatively high, which helps mitigate persistent high inequality. We offer a range of estimates of transition probabilities, indicating that, for example, someone in the lowest (highest) quintile has between 25% and 50% chance of moving up (down) the income ladder. Focusing on the dynamics of poverty, we distinguish between short- and long-term poor and between chronic and transient poverty. Surprisingly, we find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem in urban than rural areas, while transient poverty is geographically more uniformly distributed. Finally, using Tobit and quantile regression, we examine the correlates of these two types of poverty. Both chronic and transient poverty are higher for households headed by women and by younger and less educated men. While minorities suffer more from transient poverty, they are less likely to be chronically poor. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy to alleviate chronic and transient poverty.
机译：在过去的三十年中，革命的伊朗对其政治和经济体系造成了巨大冲击，可能对贫困，不平等和经济流动产生影响。尽管贫困有所减少，但不平等现象在近四十年中一直相对较高且稳定。在本文中，我们首次使用在1992-1995年期间收集的4年面板数据，动态地研究了贫困和不平等状况。我们表明，短期收入流动性相对较高，这有助于缓解持续的高度不平等现象。我们提供了一系列转换概率估计，例如，最低（最高）五分之一人口中有25％至50％的机会提高（降低）收入阶梯。关注贫困的动态，我们区分了短期贫困和长期贫困以及长期贫困和短暂贫困。令人惊讶地，我们发现，与农村地区相比，长期贫困在城市中是一个更为严重的问题，而暂时性贫困在地理上分布更均匀。最后，使用Tobit和分位数回归，我们检验了这两种贫困的相关性。对于以妇女为户主的家庭以及受教育程度较低的年轻男子来说，长期贫困和暂时贫困都较高。尽管少数群体遭受短暂贫困之苦，但他们长期处于贫困状态的可能性较小。我们讨论了这些发现对减轻长期和暂时贫困的政策的意义。

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