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Environmental policy implications of extreme variations in pollutant stock levels and socioeconomic costs

机译:污染物存量水平和社会经济成本的极端变化对环境政策的影响

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This paper uses a real options approach to examine the impact of abrupt increases in carbon dioxide emissions and pollutant-related socio-economic costs. It derives optimal investment rules in the form of critical values for both pollutant stock levels and social costs, above which environmental policies should be adopted. Moreover, it determines the optimal emissions abatement level. Our analysis extends the methodology of Pindyck (2000) using jump diffusion processes. We show that if the stock of pollutant is subject to extreme variations and the emissions abatement level is chosen exogenously by the policymaker, then lower levels of the pollutant stock are required to trigger policy adoption. A similar, yet more prominent, effect is observed under the assumption that pollutant-related socio-economic costs and benefits are expected to exhibit abrupt changes. However, different results are obtained when we examine simultaneously the two interrelated decisions, namely, the optimal threshold of emissions abatement and the optimal abatement level. In this case, an increase in the size and/or probability of a jump increases the critical values of both pollutant stock levels and socio-economic costs but leads to higher optimal abatement.
机译:本文使用一种实物期权方法来研究二氧化碳排放量突然增加和与污染物相关的社会经济成本的影响。它以临界值的形式得出污染物存量水平和社会成本的最佳投资规则,在此之上应采用环境政策。此外,它确定了最佳的减排水平。我们的分析使用跳跃扩散过程扩展了Pindyck(2000)的方法。我们表明,如果污染物的存量变化很大,而决策者是外生选择减排水平,那么需要较低水平的污染物存量才能触发政策的采用。在与污染物有关的社会经济成本和收益预计将呈现出急剧变化的假设下,观察到了类似但更为突出的效果。但是,当我们同时检查两个相互关联的决定时,即减排的最佳阈值和最优的减排水平,会得到不同的结果。在这种情况下,跳跃的大小和/或可能性的增加会增加污染物存量水平和社会经济成本的临界值,但会导致更高的最佳减排量。

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