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Anatomy of a ratings change

机译：评级变化的剖析

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I document the frequency with which credit rating changes result from changes in the firm's operating environment versus changes in capital structure controlled by management. I find that management action plays a significant role in credit rating changes. Twenty-eight percent of downgrades and 44% of upgrades have a substantial management influence. The frequency of management impact on credit ratings shows the limitations of credit risk modeling using structural models that assume constant capital structure. Even the cases in which firms are downgraded across the investment/speculative grade threshold can be driven by management actions rather than operating or economic conditions. Twenty-two percent of the observations of firms newly downgraded to speculative grade are entirely attributable to management action. The frequency of management-driven changes exhibits yearly and industry variation.
机译：我记录了企业运营环境的变化与管理层控制的资本结构变化之间信用评级变化的频率。我发现管理行动在信用评级变化中起着重要作用。 28％的降级和44％的升级具有重大的管理影响力。管理层对信用评级的影响频率显示出使用假定资本结构不变的结构模型进行信用风险建模的局限性。即使是在投资/投机等级门槛范围内企业降级的情况，也可能是由管理行动而不是经营或经济状况驱动的。新近降级为投机级的企业中有22％的观察结果完全归因于管理行为。由管理驱动的变更的频率呈现出年度变化和行业变化。

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