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METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF ACCIDENTAL ATMOSPHERIC RELEASES OF HAZARDOUS MATTER

机译：评价危险物质意外大气泄漏可能后果的方法学

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摘要

Sites exist with high levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases. These releases can be hazardous nuclear, chemical, and biological matter. Such accidents may occur during transport of waste, or they may be due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts or various operations at high risk. Considering the operation of lifting and transport of the sunken Kursk nuclear submarine as an example, a methodology for risk assessment is described. This methodology includes two approaches: (1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport pathways using trajectory modelling, and (2) evaluation of possible contamination and consequences using real-time operational atmospheric dispersion modelling. The first approach can be applied in advance of an operation during the preparation stage, the second in real time during the operation stage. For the cases considered in this study, the results of trajectory modelling are supported by the operational dispersion modelling, i.e., the westerly flow is dominant during fall occurring 79% of the time. Hence, September-October 2001 was more appropriate for the lifting and transport of the Kursk nuclear submarine in comparison with summer months, when atmospheric transport toward the populated regions of the Kola and Scandinavian Peninsulas was dominant. The suggested methodology may be applied to any potentially dangerous object involving a risk of atmospheric release of hazardous material of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.
机译：现场存在大气意外释放的高风险。这些释放可能是有害的核，化学和生物物质。此类事故可能是在废物运输过程中发生的，也可能是由于自然灾害，人为错误，恐怖行为或高风险的各种操作造成的。以沉没的库尔斯克核潜艇的起升和运输操作为例，描述了一种风险评估方法。这种方法包括两种方法：（1）使用轨迹模型对可能的大气传输路径进行概率分析，以及（2）使用实时操作的大气扩散模型对可能的污染和后果进行评估。第一种方法可以在准备阶段的操作之前应用，第二种方法可以在操作阶段实时应用。对于本研究中考虑的情况，轨迹离散模型的结果得到操作离散模型的支持，即在发生坠落的情况下，西风流占主导地位的时间为79％。因此，与夏季相比，2001年9月至10月相对于库尔斯克核潜艇的吊装和运输更为合适，而夏季，向科拉和斯堪的纳维亚半岛人口稠密地区的大气运输占主导地位。所建议的方法可以应用于任何潜在危险的物体，涉及到大气中释放具有核，化学或生物性质的危险物质的风险。

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