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Assessing wind power operating costs in the United States: Results from a survey of wind industry experts

机译：评估美国的风电运营成本：风电行业专家的调查结果

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摘要

This paper draws on a survey of wind industry professionals to clarify trends in the operational expenditures (OpEx) of U.S. land-based wind power plants. We find that average all-in lifetime OpEx has declined from approximately $80/kW-yr (~$35/MWh) for projects built in the late 1990s to a level approaching $40/kW-yr (~$ll/MWh) for projects built in 2018. Turbine operations and maintenance costs represent the single largest component of overall OpEx and the primary source of cost reductions. We observe wide ranges of OpEx over time; respondents cite a range in average expected costs for recently commissioned projects from $33/kW-yr to $59/kW-yr. We also use historical OpEx learning rates, showing a 9% OpEx reduction for each doubling of global wind capacity, to project a further $5-$8/kW-yr reduction from 2018 to 2040. These findings suggest that continued OpEx reductions may contribute 10% or more of the expected reductions in land-based wind's levelized cost of energy. Moreover, these estimates understate the importance of OpEx owing to the multiplicative effects through which operational advancements influence not only operations and maintenance costs but also component reliability, performance, and plant-level availability—thereby also affecting levelized costs by enhancing annual energy production and plant lifetimes. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available OpEx data, the trends reported here may inform OpEx assumptions used by electric planners, analysts, and modelers. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the wind industry, helping developers and asset owners compare their expectations with historical experience and other industry projections.
机译：本文通过对风电行业专业人士的调查来阐明美国陆上风电厂的运营支出（OpEx）趋势。我们发现，平均全寿命OpEx已从1990年代后期建造的项目的约$ 80 / kW-yr（〜$ 35 / MWh）下降到接近$ 40 / kW-yr（〜$ ll / MWh）的水平在2018年，涡轮机的运营和维护成本是总体运营支出的最大组成部分，也是成本降低的主要来源。随着时间的流逝，我们观察到了各种各样的OpEx；受访者列举了最近投产项目的平均预期成本，范围从$ 33 / kW-yr到$ 59 / kW-yr。我们还使用历史OpEx学习率，即每增加一倍的全球风能，将OpEx降低9％，以预测从2018年到2040年每年将进一步降低$ 5- $ 8 / kW。这些发现表明，持续降低OpEx可能贡献10％或更多预期的陆上风能平准化能源成本的减少。此外，这些估计数低估了OpEx的重要性，这是由于乘积效应，运营进步不仅影响运营和维护成本，而且还影响组件的可靠性，性能和工厂级别的可用性-从而还通过提高年度能源生产和工厂来影响平均成本。一生。鉴于先前可用的OpEx数据的数量和可比性有限，此处报告的趋势可能会为电气规划人员，分析人员和建模人员使用的OpEx假设提供依据。该结果还可以为风电行业提供有用的基准，帮助开发商和资产所有者将其预期与历史经验和其他行业预测进行比较。

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  • 来源
    《Refocus》 |2019年第9期|46-57|共12页
  • 作者

    Ryan Wiser; Mark Bolinger; Eric Lantz;

  • 作者单位

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road Berkeley CA 94720 USA;

    National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden CO 80401 USA;

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