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Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii's shifting climate

机译：在夏威夷多变的气候中寻找长期栖息地保护和恢复的机会

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Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic vegetation models in isolated and data-poor islands. We identified locations consistently expected to remain the same in terms of the native biome compatibility by the end of the century with a robust evaluation of sources of uncertainty in our projections. Our results show that, despite large differences in climate projections considered, 35% of the areas considered are consistently projected to maintain their current compatibility to native biomes. By integrating our native biome compatibility projections with maps of current actual cover, we identified areas ideal for long-term habitat conservation and restoration. Our modeling approach can be used with relatively simple data; offers multiple forms of projection confidence estimates, model calibration, and variable selection routines; and is compatible with ensemble projections. This method is not only applicable to potential native cover, as done in this study, but to any set of vegetation classes that are related to environmental predictors available for modeling.
机译：在孤立的群岛如夏威夷的保护工作通常集中在基于栖息地的保护和恢复工作上，这些工作使多种物种受益。不幸的是，确定这样的位置对气候变化的影响是更安全的仍然是挑战。我们旨在为相似的数据和研究受限的环境提供一种近似这些潜在栖息地转移的方法。我们模拟了气候与整个夏威夷群岛上原生生物群落的潜在分布之间的关系，以提供本世纪末预估气候下潜在原生生物群落转变的第一近似值。我们的相关模型避免了在偏僻且数据贫乏的岛屿中对机械化植被模型进行参数化所必需的数据的缺乏。我们通过可靠地评估我们的预测中不确定性的来源，确定了到本世纪末在自然生物群落兼容性方面一贯希望保持不变的位置。我们的结果表明，尽管考虑到的气候预测存在很大差异，但预计将始终考虑到35％的区域保持其与本地生物群落的当前兼容性。通过将我们的原生生物群系相容性预测与当前实际覆盖率地图相结合，我们确定了长期栖息地保护和恢复的理想区域。我们的建模方法可以用于相对简单的数据。提供多种形式的投影置信度估计，模型校准和变量选择例程；并且与合奏投影兼容。这种方法不仅适用于本研究中潜在的自然覆盖，而且适用于与可用于建模的环境预测指标有关的任何植被类别。

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