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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 ℃
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Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 ℃

机译：小岛屿发展中国家的淡水胁迫：1.5和2℃下的人口预测和干旱变化

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Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 degrees C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 degrees C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.
机译：小岛屿发展中国家（SIDS）面临着人为气候变化的多重威胁，包括淡水资源的潜在变化。由于小岛屿发展中国家地形之间的空间比例不匹配以及全球气候模型（GCM）的水平分辨率不匹配，因此在用来对全球气候变化及其区域影响进行未来预测的GCM中，SIDS大部分没有得到说明。需要采取特定的方法来解决大规模模型预测与区域性，政策相关成果之间的差距。在这里，我们采用一种最新开发的方法来规避GCM对粗分辨率的限制，以便预测小岛上干旱的未来变化。这些气候预测与与共享社会经济途径（SSP）相关的独立人口预测相结合，以评估在比工业化前水平高1.5和2摄氏度的情况下，小岛屿发展中国家淡水胁迫的总体变化。虽然我们发现未来的人口增长将主导预计的淡水压力的变化，尤其是到本世纪末，但对于大多数小岛屿发展中国家来说，干旱的预计变化会加重淡水的压力。对于一些小岛屿发展中国家，特别是整个加勒比海地区，通过将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内，到2030年在2摄氏度以下预计的大型总体淡水压力中，可以避免很大一部分（25％）。我们的发现增加了关于1.5到2摄氏度之间气候影响差异的文献，强调了需要进行区域特定分析。

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