Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 ℃ versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

Donk Peter; Van Uytven Els; Willems Patrick; Taylor Michael A.

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Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 ℃ versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

机译：苏里南Afobaka水电计划1.5℃相对较高的全球升温幅度的潜在影响评估

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The long-term sustainability of proposed or existing hydropower schemes strongly depends on the availability of water resources. Under climate change, long-term water resource availability in the Caribbean is highly uncertain. This study presents an approach for assessing future climate impacts on regional hydropower potential premised on the use of hydrological models and projections from the latest generation of climate models. When the methodology is applied to the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname, the results indicate significant changes in, both, water resources availability and hydropower potential with increasing global temperatures. A decrease of approximately 40% is projected by the end of the century for global temperature increase in the range of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Under a business as usual greenhouse gas emissions pathway, which would lead to global temperatures significantly above 1.5 degrees C, the impact is more severe, with a projected decrease of up to 80% (65MW) of the firm power capacity (80MW) by the end of the century.

机译：拟议或现有水电计划的长期可持续性在很大程度上取决于水资源的可用性。在气候变化的影响下，加勒比地区的长期水资源可用性高度不确定。这项研究提出了一种在使用水文模型和最新一代气候模型预测的前提下，评估未来气候对区域水电潜力的影响的方法。当将该方法应用于苏里南的Afobaka水电计划时，结果表明随着全球温度的升高，水资源的可利用性和水电潜力都将发生重大变化。预计到本世纪末，全球温度在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内下降约40％。在照常营业的温室气体排放途径下，这将导致全球温度显着高于1.5摄氏度，其影响更为严重，预计到2010年，全球最大发电能力（80MW）减少80％（65MW）。世纪末。

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《Regional Environmental Change》 |2018年第8期|2283-2295|共13页
作者
Donk Peter; Van Uytven Els; Willems Patrick; Taylor Michael A.;
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作者单位

Univ West Indies, Dept Phys, Mona, Jamaica;

NV Energiebedrijven Suriname, Noorderkerk Str 2-14, Paramaribo, Surinam;

Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Sect, Leuven, Belgium;

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正文语种 eng
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Hydropower; Climate change; Climate modeling; Statistical downscaling; CMIP5; Suriname;

机译：水电;气候变化;气候建模;统计缩减;CMIP5;苏里南;

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Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 ℃ versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

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