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Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia

机译：气候和土地利用变化对土壤侵蚀的影响：以塞尔维亚Vranjska山谷为例

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摘要

Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.
机译：预计气候变化将导致更加剧烈的环境变化，包括土壤侵蚀。作为预测气候和土地利用变化影响的可靠工具，InVEST泥沙输送率模型与EBU-POM（埃塔贝尔格莱德大学普林斯顿海洋模型）区域气候模型相结合，用于量化侵蚀到21世纪末，弗拉涅斯卡河谷地区的强度。与基准时期相比，到本世纪末，气候变化对弗兰季斯卡河谷时空格局的影响将使平均土壤流失减少41.84％。在本世纪下半叶土壤侵蚀率下降的主要原因是降水总量下降了17.19％，其影响不可避免地导致自然和人工生态系统的变化。此外，这项研究的结果突出了综合方法的优势，该方法结合了气候变化的影响和土地利用的类型，可以对土壤侵蚀的未来变化做出更好，更现实的估计。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2019年第4期|1035-1046|共12页
  • 作者

    Perovic Veljko; Kadovic Ratko; Djurdjevic Vladimir; Braunovic Sonja; Cakmak Dragan; Mitrovic Miroslava; Pavlovic Pavle;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Belgrade, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia;

    Univ Belgrade, Fac Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 1, Belgrade 11030, Serbia;

    Univ Belgrade, Inst Meteorol, Fac Phys, Dobracina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia;

    Inst Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 3, Belgrade 11030, Serbia;

    Univ Belgrade, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia;

    Univ Belgrade, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia;

    Univ Belgrade, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Soil erosion; Climate change; Land use changes; A1B scenario;

    机译：土壤侵蚀;气候变化;土地利用变化;A1B情景;

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