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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Modeling Cedrus atlantica potential distribution in North Africa across time: new putative glacial refugia and future range shifts under climate change
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Modeling Cedrus atlantica potential distribution in North Africa across time: new putative glacial refugia and future range shifts under climate change

机译：模拟北非雪松的大西洋潜在时空分布：气候变化下新的假定冰川避难所和未来范围变化

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In recent years, species distribution models have been used to gain a better understanding of past and future range dynamics of species. Here, we focus on a keystone species of the North African forest ecosystem (Cedrus atlantica) by calculating a consensus model of the species current geographic potential distribution in North Africa, based on a weighted average method aiming to decrease uncertainty. The consensus model is obtained using seven species distribution model algorithms taking into account 24 environmental variables. The model is then applied to several past and future time slices. Past projections refer to the Middle-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas those of future are related to expect conditions around 2050 and 2070. We found that the current potential distribution of Cedrus atlantica is larger than its actual geographical distribution. For some explanatory variables, the analysis revealed their importance for the species current distribution. Among all obtained models, that for the Middle-Holocene showed the maximum expansion of the species potential distribution. The Last Glacial Maximum model provided new putative glacial refugia of Cedrus atlantica, not shown by other mechanistic models and palaeorecord localities. Future projections revealed a significant and fast contraction with shifting in altitude of the species range, showing more fragmented areas and even species disappearance in many North African localities. These findings can help to restore cedar forests and conserve them by ex situ strategies according to the future defined refugia in North Africa. Attention should be paid to the resolution of related output maps, the current biotic interactions, and those that may arise under climate change.
机译：近年来，已经使用物种分布模型来更好地了解物种的过去和未来范围动态。在这里，我们基于加权平均法（旨在减少不确定性），通过计算北非物种当前地理潜力分布的共识模型，着眼于北非森林生态系统（Cedrus atlantica）的关键物种。使用7种物种分布模型算法并考虑24个环境变量来获得共识模型。然后将该模型应用于多个过去和将来的时间片。过去的预测指的是中全新世和最后一次冰河最高峰，而未来的预测则与2050年和2070年左右的预期条件有关。我们发现，目前雪松的潜在分布大于其实际地理分布。对于某些解释变量，分析显示了它们对于物种当前分布的重要性。在所有获得的模型中，中全新世的模型显示出物种势分布的最大扩展。 Last Glacial Maximum模型提供了新的推定的雪松大西洋冰霜，其他机制模型和古记录局部均未显示。未来的预测显示，随着物种范围高度的变化，收缩速度将显着加快，显示出许多北非地区的碎片更加分散，甚至物种消失。这些发现可根据北非未来定义的避难所，通过异地策略来帮助恢复雪松林并进行保护。应注意相关输出图的分辨率，当前的生物相互作用以及气候变化下可能产生的相互作用。

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