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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Climate change and uncertainty from 'above' and 'below': perspectives from India
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Climate change and uncertainty from 'above' and 'below': perspectives from India

机译：来自“上方”和“下方”的气候变化和不确定性：印度的观点

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Climate-related uncertainty refers to the inability to predict the scale, intensity, and impact of climate change on human and natural environments. Debates of uncertainty in climate change have emerged as a super wicked' problem for scientists and policy makers alike. The article draws on ongoing research in different socio-ecological and cultural settings in India (Kutch, the Sundarbans and Mumbai) and introduces the heuristic of the above', middle' and below' to explore how climate change and uncertainty are understood and experienced by diverse actors. Responses from above' (especially by planners and policy makers) tend to be directed towards controlling uncertainty through top-down, techno-managerial solutions whereas scientists tend to rely on quantitative assessments and models based on probabilistic scenarios. These may have little to do with the experiences and lived realities of local people, especially in the global South, who are often at the frontline of climate change. Also at the local level, climate-related uncertainties seldom stand alone, rather they closely interact with other socio-economic drivers of change that create new uncertainties and vulnerabilities, especially for poor and powerless people constraining their adaptation choices. This article demonstrates deep differences in ways different actors understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It argues that diverse knowledge and approaches need to be deployed to understand and embrace climate related uncertainties in order to facilitate socially just adaptation.
机译：与气候相关的不确定性是指无法预测气候变化对人类和自然环境的规模，强度和影响。对于科学家和政策制定者来说，关于气候变化不确定性的争论已经成为一个超级邪恶的问题。本文借鉴了印度（库奇，松达尔邦和孟买）不同社会生态和文化环境下正在进行的研究，并介绍了“上，中”和“下”的启发式方法，以探索如何理解和体验气候变化和不确定性。各种各样的演员。来自上层的回应（尤其是计划者和政策制定者）​​倾向于直接通过自上而下的技术管理解决方案来控制不确定性，而科学家则倾向于依赖基于概率情景的定量评估和模型。这些可能与当地人的经验和现实状况无关，尤其是在全球南方，他们经常处于气候变化的最前沿。同样在地方一级，与气候有关的不确定性很少单独存在，而是与其他社会经济变化驱动因素密切相互作用，从而产生新的不确定性和脆弱性，特别是对于那些贫困和无能为力的人来说，限制他们的适应选择。本文展示了不同参与者在理解和体验气候变化和不确定性方面的深刻差异。它认为需要运用各种知识和方法来理解和接受与气候相关的不确定性，以促进社会公正的适应。

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