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Preference uncertainty as an explanation of anomalies in contingent valuation: coastal management in the UK

机译：偏好不确定性作为或有估值异常的解释：英国的沿海管理

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摘要

Directly asking respondents in contingent valuation surveys their willingness to pay is one of the few quantitative methods available to assess full economic value (including both use and non-use values) of non-market environmental goods. It therefore remains vitally important to better understand the reasons for consistently observed violations of procedural invariance in such surveys. This paper describes an empirical experiment designed to examine whether uncertainty might provide an explanation for three commonly observed violations of procedural invariance in contingent valuation. In each case, we present a plausible explanation for each anomaly through decision heuristics brought about by respondents trying to answer the question truthfully when their underlying preferences are stable but uncertain. Using a novel semi-parametric estimator, we find little evidence to support the idea that anomalies can be resolved through an uncertainty explanation, but our experiment provides noteworthy insights into the ways uncertain preferences may be shaped by the nature of contingent valuation questions.
机译：在或有估值评估中直接询问受访者其支付意愿是可用于评估非市场环境商品的全部经济价值（包括使用和非使用价值）的几种定量方法之一。因此，至关重要的是，要更好地了解此类调查中一贯观察到的违反程序不变性的原因。本文描述了一个经验实验，旨在检查不确定性是否可以为偶然评估中三个常被观察到的违反程序不变性的现象提供解释。在每种情况下，我们都会通过被试者在基本偏好稳定但不确定的情况下试图如实回答问题的决策启发法，为每个异常现象提供一个合理的解释。使用新颖的半参数估计量，我们发现很少的证据支持可以通过不确定性解释来解决异常的想法，但是我们的实验提供了值得注意的见解，以了解不确定偏好可能由或有估值问题的性质所影响。

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