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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Future forest landscapes of the Carpathians: vegetation and carbon dynamics under climate change
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Future forest landscapes of the Carpathians: vegetation and carbon dynamics under climate change

机译：喀尔巴阡山脉的未来森林景观：气候变化下的植被和碳动态

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摘要

Climate change will alter forest ecosystems and their provisioning of services. Forests in the Carpathian Mountains store high amounts of carbon and provide livelihoods to local people; however, no study has yet assessed their future long-term dynamics under climate change. Therefore, we selected a representative area of 1340 km_(2)to investigate the effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on (i) the spatial dynamics of the dominant tree species and forest types and (ii) the trajectories of the associated aboveground live carbon (ALC). We simulated 500 years of change under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, incorporating wind and bark beetle disturbances using the LANDIS-II forest change model. Our simulations revealed a lagged adaptation of the forest landscape to climate change. While Picea abies dominance declined in all scenarios, Carpinus betulus expanded at low elevations and Acer pseudoplatanus at mid-elevations. We also found a slow but continuous expansion of Quercus petraea and Q. robur at low elevations and of Fagus sylvatica at mid and high elevations. This change in species composition was accompanied by a significant reduction of ALC: on average over the simulation period, unmitigated climate change reduced ALC between − 2.1% (RCP2.6) and − 14.0% (RCP8.5), while disturbances caused an additional reduction of ALC between − 4.5% (RCP2.6) and − 6.6% (RCP8.5). Therefore, foresighted management strategies are needed to facilitate vegetation adaptation to climate change, with the goal of stabilizing carbon storage and maintaining economic value of future Carpathian forests.
机译：气候变化将改变森林生态系统及其提供的服务。喀尔巴阡山脉的森林储存大量的碳，为当地居民提供生计；但是，尚无研究评估其在气候变化下的未来长期动态。因此，我们选择了1340 km_（2）的代表性区域来研究气候变化和干扰机制对（i）优势树种和森林类型的空间动态以及（ii）相关的地上活碳轨迹的影响（ALC）。我们使用四种代表浓度路径（RCP）情景模拟了500年的变化，并使用LANDIS-II森林变化模型合并了风和树皮甲虫的干扰。我们的模拟显示森林景观与气候变化的滞后适应。在所有情况下，云杉的优势地位都下降了，而在低海拔时，甜菜Carpinus betulus扩大了，在中海拔时，Acer pseudoplatanus了。我们还发现低海拔的栎栎和Q. robur缓慢而持续地扩张，中高海拔的青冈栎（Fagus sylvatica）缓慢但持续地扩张。物种组成的这种变化伴随着ALC的显着降低：在模拟期间，平均而言，未缓解的气候变化将ALC降低了-2.1％（RCP2.6）和-14.0％（RCP8.5），而干扰导致了ALC的降低幅度在-4.5％（RCP2.6）和-6.6％（RCP8.5）之间。因此，需要有远见的管理策略来促进植被适应气候变化，以稳定碳储存和保持未来喀尔巴阡森林的经济价值为目标。

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