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Land cover change explains the increasing discharge of the Parana River

机译：土地覆盖的变化解释了巴拉那河流量的增加

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摘要

Over the past 40 years, the discharge in South America’s Paraná River basin has increased despite no evidence of significant rainfall increases in the basin. In this analysis, we show that the observed multi-decadal increase in discharge can be explained by concomitant changes in land cover that have occurred within the basin during this period. Our analysis also indicates that the peak discharge timing may have shifted concurrently from January/February in the 1970s to March in more recent decades. While land-use effect dominantly alters the long-term temporal dynamics of the river discharge over multi-decades, the change in the seasonality of the discharge can be attributable to the combined effect of the land-use and climate variability. This study suggests that the mean annual discharge is likely to change in the other South American River basins where land transformation is currently taking place, and the shift of the month of peak discharge needs to be taken into consideration to forecast the hydropower generation under changing climate and land conversion.
机译：在过去的40年中，南美南美巴拉那河流域的排水量有所增加，尽管没有证据表明流域的降雨显着增加。在这项分析中，我们表明，观测到的排放量的数十年增加可以用这一时期流域内发生的土地覆被变化来解释。我们的分析还表明，峰值放电时间可能从1970年代的1月/ 2月同时转移到了最近几十年的3月。尽管土地利用效应主要改变了数十年来河流排放的长期时间动态，但排放季节的变化可归因于土地利用和气候多变性的综合影响。这项研究表明，在其他目前正在进行土地转换的南美河流域，年均排放量可能会发生变化，并且需要考虑峰值排放月份的变化，以预测气候变化下的水力发电量。和土地转换。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2018年第6期|1871-1881|共11页
  • 作者

    Eunjee Lee; Angela Livino; Shin-Chan Han; Ke Zhang; John Briscoe; Jerson Kelman; Paul Moorcroft;

  • 作者单位

    Sustainability Science Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center;

    Sustainability Science Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,Energy Research Office, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE);

    School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, and College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;

    Sustainability Science Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University;

    Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, COPPE-UFRJ, Civil Engineering Program;

    Sustainability Science Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Land cover change; River discharge; Paraná River basin; Shift of the peak discharge timing; Hydroelectricity generation in Brazil;

    机译：土地覆盖变化;河流流量;帕拉纳河流域;高峰流量排放时间的变化;巴西的水力发电;

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