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Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

机译：未来生物气候变化对葡萄牙森林的影响

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摘要

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at similar to 1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species' current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950-2000) and future climates (2041-2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of similar to 54 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of similar to 13 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.
机译：由于气候是植被分布的重要驱动力，因此气候变化对林业构成了重大挑战。我们（1）确定葡萄牙49种相关森林物种的主要生物气候条件，并（2）评估气候变化情景下的未来变化。我们以接近1 km的空间分辨率计算了两个生物气候指数（干旱度和热度）和一个新的综合指数，并且与该物种的当前范围重叠。位置基于数字清单，而在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，最近过去（1950-2000）和未来气候（2041-2060）的气候参数由气候模拟的多模型集合提供。未来方案的结果突出了整体变暖和干燥的趋势。从目前的几乎不存在到RCP8.5的2041-2060年，该地区的上地中海和中陆气候将大大减少，而热地中海气候将急剧增加。从高湿和潮湿到半湿润，再从半湿润到半干旱气候也有明显的转变（RCP8.5的面积覆盖率在2041-2060中约为13％）。地中海南部低湿至半干旱地区将覆盖葡萄牙的南部。这些预测确定了未来气候中最脆弱的物种（例如，毛白桦，栎木和栗木）和适应性最强的物种（例如，栎木，圆角问草，角藜，松木，球杉）。与经济上相关的桉树和松树（Pinus pinaster）相关的当前生物气候区将适当减少并重新安置。讨论了可能的适应措施，以提高森林对气候变化的适应力，同时保持其经济和环境效益。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2017年第1期|117-127|共11页
  • 作者

    Costa Ricardo; Fraga Helder; Fernandes Paulo M.; Santos Joao A.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, CITAB, UTAD, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal;

    Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, CITAB, UTAD, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal;

    Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, CITAB, UTAD, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal;

    Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, CITAB, UTAD, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal|Escola Ciencias & Tecnol, Dept Fis, P-5000801 Quinta De Prados, Vila Real, Portugal;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Forest species; Bioclimatic zoning; Aridity index; Thermicity index; Climate change; Portugal;

    机译：森林物种;生物气候区划;干旱指数;温度指数;气候变化;葡萄牙;

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