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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change
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Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change

机译：气候变化在黎凡特的凯梅斯栎（Quercus coccifera L.）的当前和将来适用范围

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摘要

Quercus coccifera L. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian-Lebanese coast up to 1500 m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes.
机译：Quercus coccifera L.（Kermes橡木）是一种常绿的橡木，典型地位于地中海东部和东南部的马奎斯。它沿叙-黎巴嫩海岸几乎连续不断地发生，直至1500 m，并且内陆更为分散，直到约旦佩特拉最干旱的南部地区。人类影响和全球变暖都强烈影响该物种的自然分布，从而导致整个地区广泛的森林破碎化。在这项研究中，我们调查了克尔姆斯橡木的当前生物气候范围，并预测了在二十一世纪的过程中哪些地区可能最合适。根据23个地形和气候变量，生态位生态模型被用来检索该物种的环境范围。应用了五种算法和三种通用循环模型来提供当前Kermes橡木的潜在分布并将其投影到未来。结果显示，中东目前的合适区域从叙利亚西北部开始，沿黎巴嫩沿岸和内陆一直延伸到地中海的西坡巴勒斯坦和戈兰地区（以色列），从约旦河谷一直延伸到达纳河和瓦迪拉姆河（约旦），在贾巴尔·阿拉伯（南部叙利亚）隔离。未来的情况表明，尤其是在叙利亚北部和戈兰北部，克尔姆斯橡树的活动范围将大大分散和受到限制，而且高度会发生总体变化。这些信息可能有助于通过确定最适合气候成功实施生态系统恢复和管理的最合适区域（包括重新造林计划）来帮助林业工作者应对气候变化的挑战。

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