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Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China

机译：主要谷物的近期生产方式：对中国粮食安全的影响

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摘要

China's large population and deteriorating environment have created great concern related to the sustainability of food production, especially since details related to this topic remain poorly studied. Thus, an integrated analysis of both crop yield and cultivated area is essential for gaining a better understanding of cereal grain production in China and for making corresponding policies designed to achieve food security. In this study, we adopt trend analysis of both provincial yield and cultivated area to assess the subsequent provincial-level cereal production sustainability between 1980 and 2011 with the goal of providing a better understanding of regional agricultural development. The results indicate that while maize shows the most promise for yield improvement, rice and wheat production is experiencing substantial yield stagnation among most provinces across mainland China. In addition, the trends in spatial patterns are prominently different from those of yields. The sizes of the main rice- and wheat-growing areas in China have declined greatly, suggesting that the related production of these cereals should attract more attention from land management planners and farmers. Specifically, the south-eastern coastal provinces have largely failed to sustain both crop yield and area, while the north-eastern provinces have witnessed thriving agricultural production during the last three decades. Moreover, we find that cereal production in China is significantly affected by governmental policies related to the agricultural sector. Thus, this analysis of food production in China will help policymakers to better understand how the potential implications of food security in China may be applicable to countries worldwide.
机译：中国人口众多，环境恶化，引起了人们对粮食生产可持续性的极大关注，特别是因为与这一主题有关的细节研究还很少。因此，对作物产量和耕地面积进行综合分析对于更好地了解中国的谷物生产以及制定旨在实现粮食安全的相应政策至关重要。在这项研究中，我们采用对省份产量和耕地面积的趋势分析，以评估1980年至2011年以后省级谷物生产的可持续性，目的是更好地了解区域农业发展。结果表明，尽管玉米表现出最大的增产前景，但中国大陆大多数省份的水稻和小麦产量却出现大幅停滞。此外，空间格局的趋势与产量的趋势明显不同。中国水稻和小麦主产区的面积已大大减少，这表明这些谷物的相关生产应引起土地管理计划者和农民的更多关注。具体而言，东南沿海省份在很大程度上未能维持作物的产量和面积，而东北三省在过去的三十年中见证了农业生产的蓬勃发展。此外，我们发现中国的谷物生产受到与农业相关的政府政策的重大影响。因此，对中国粮食生产的这种分析将有助于决策者更好地了解中国粮食安全的潜在影响如何适用于世界各国。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2017年第1期|105-116|共12页
  • 作者

    Wei Xing; Zhang Zhao; Wang Pin; Tao Fulu;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Normal Univ, MOE Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ, MOE Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ, MOE Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    China; Climate change; Maize; Rice; Wheat;

    机译：中国;气候变化;玉米;水稻;小麦;

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