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Scenarios for investigating the future of Canada's oceans and marine fisheries under environmental and socioeconomic change

机译：在环境和社会经济变化下调查加拿大海洋和海洋渔业的未来的方案

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There is a critical need to develop effective strategies for the long-term sustainability of Canada's oceans. However, this is challenged by uncertainty over future impacts of global environmental and socioeconomic change on marine ecosystems, and how coastal communities will respond to these changes. Scenario analysis can address this uncertainty by exploring alternative futures for Canadian oceans under different pathways of climate change, economic development, social and policy changes. However, there has, to date, been no scenario analysis of Canada's future ocean sustainability at a national scale. To facilitate this process, we review whether the literature on existing scenarios of Canada's fisheries and marine ecosystems provides an integrative, social-ecological perspective about potential future conditions. Overall, there is sufficient national-level oceanographic data and application of ecosystem, biophysical, and socioeconomic models to generate projections of future ocean and socioeconomic trends in Canada. However, we find that the majority of marine-related scenario analyses in Canada focus on climate scenarios and the associated oceanographic and ecological changes. There is a gap in the incorporation of social, economic, and governance drivers in scenarios, as well as a lack of scenarios which consider the economic and social impact of future change. Moreover, available marine scenario studies mostly do not cover all three Canadian oceans simultaneously. To address these gaps, we propose to develop national-level scenarios using a matrix framework following the concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which would allow a social-ecological examination of Canada's oceans in terms of the state of future uncertainties.
机译：迫切需要制定有效的战略，以实现加拿大海洋的长期可持续性。但是，这受到全球环境和社会经济变化对海洋生态系统未来影响的不确定性以及沿海社区将如何应对这些变化的挑战。情景分析可以通过在气候变化，经济发展，社会和政策变化的不同途径下探索加拿大海洋的其他未来来解决这种不确定性。但是，迄今为止，还没有关于加拿大在全国范围内未来海洋可持续性的情景分析。为了促进这一过程，我们回顾了有关加拿大渔业和海洋生态系统现有情景的文献是否提供了关于潜在未来状况的综合社会生态学观点。总体而言，有足够的国家级海洋学数据以及生态系统，生物物理和社会经济模型的应用，可以得出加拿大未来海洋和社会经济趋势的预测。但是，我们发现加拿大大多数与海洋有关的情景分析都集中在气候情景以及相关的海洋和生态变化上。在方案中纳入社会，经济和治理驱动因素方面存在差距，并且缺乏考虑未来变化的经济和社会影响的方案。此外，现有的海洋情景研究大多不会同时覆盖加拿大的全部三个海洋。为了解决这些差距，我们建议遵循共享的社会经济途径的概念，使用矩阵框架来开发国家级的方案，该框架将允许对加拿大海洋进行未来的不确定性状况的社会生态考察。

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