• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions
【24h】

Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions

机译：在当前和未来的气候条件下，玫瑰阶（Rosa Canina L.）的分布

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the speciesRosa canina L.(rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km(2)are currently 'highly suitable' forRosa caninaL., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.
机译：本研究旨在模拟Specessrosa Canina L.（玫瑰阶）的潜在分布区域，并在鉴于气候变化方案下预测和分析其分布的可能变化。来自WorldClim数据库的19个生物纤细变量施加到180个已知的物种存在位置，并且使用MaxEnt鉴定了当前条件下物种的潜在分布区域。为了确定在气候变化的影响下的物种的未来地理分布，使用了社区气候系统模型（CCSM Ver.4）。从代表浓度途径（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5方案的气候变化情景符合2050年和2070年的RCP 8.5，符合政府间议会关于气候变化小组的第五次评估报告。此外，进行了改变分析，以确定物种的当前和未来潜在分布之间的面积和位置的精确差异，指定栖息地增长，栖息地损失和稳定的栖息地。最后，进行了千刀测试，以确定哪些个体生物融色变量最多影响物种的地理分布。该研究发现，总共170,596公里（2）的地区目前是“高度合适的”森林群岛。但该领域将在RCP 4.5场景中截至2070年的114,474公里（2），到2070年的41,146公里（2） RCP 8.5场景。最潮湿的季度的平均温度是影响物种分布的最有影响力的生物耦体变量。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号