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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Climate change reduces the natural range of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkiana Muell. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) in south-central Africa
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Climate change reduces the natural range of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkiana Muell. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) in south-central Africa

机译：气候变化减少了非洲非洲中非共同的非洲野生枇杷的自然范围（Uapaca Kirkiana Muell。arg。，phyllanthaceae）

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摘要

Climate change is predicted to threaten biodiversity and the distribution and abundance of species. In Africa and other developing regions, changing distributions and abundances of tree species may have profound effects on livelihoods. The aims of the study were to determine the current continuous distribution of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkianaMull. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) and to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the species. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to generate models of the current distribution and for projections under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). After resampling and correlation analysis, models were generated using 84 occurrence records and nine environmental variables. Results showed that the species has a current continuous distribution in the range of miombo woodlands of south-central Africa, in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Projections showed suitable habitat contracting under most RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Range contraction was especially acute under a scenario of no mitigation of greenhouse gas emission, that is RCP8.5. In 2050, the range of the species was forecasted to contract by - 13.9% (RCP2.6), - 5.8% (RCP4.5) and - 14.9% (RCP8.5), with a slight expansion of 1.3% under RCP6.0. In 2070, the range was forecasted to contract by - 17.6% (RCP2.6), - 16.4% (RCP4.5), - 3.7% (RCP6.0) and - 20.6% (RCP8.5). Domestication and establishment in protected areas are some options to mitigate against the forecasted contraction of the natural range of the species.
机译：预计气候变化将威胁生物多样性以及物种的分布和丰富。在非洲和其他发展区域，改变分布和树种丰富对生计可能具有深远的影响。该研究的目的是确定非洲野生枇杷的当前连续分布（Uapaca Kirkianamull。Arg。，Phyllanthaceae）并预测气候变化对物种未来分布的影响。最大熵方法（MaxEnt）用于生成当前分布的模型和不同代表浓度途径（RCPS）下的投影。重采样和相关性分析后，使用84个出现记录和九个环境变量产生模型。结果表明，该物种在非洲南部中非共和国南非的Miombo林地范围内具有目前的连续分布，位于刚果南部，南部民主共和国，马拉维，莫桑比克，坦桑尼亚，津巴布韦和赞比亚。投影在2050年和2070年的大多数RCP下显示出合适的栖息地承包。范围收缩在无节约温室气体排放的情况下特别令人痛苦，即RCP8.5。 2050年，预计该物种的范围将收缩 - 13.9％（RCP2.6）， - 5.8％（RCP4.5）和-14.9％（RCP8.5），在RCP6下略有扩增1.3％。 0。在2070年，预计该范围将收缩 - 17.6％（RCP2.6）， - 16.4％（RCP4.5）， - 3.7％（RCP6.0）和 - 20.6％（RCP8.5）。在保护区的归国和建立是一些选择减轻物种自然范围的预测收缩。

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