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A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

机译：分析脆弱性社会生态模式的新方法

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This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.
机译：本文提出了一种方法，用于分析由于全球环境变化而面临丧失生计的风险的人们的脆弱性的社会生态模式。该方法通过对形成特定社会生态系统中脆弱性的因素进行概括并显示其空间发生情况，填补了脆弱性分析方法学中的空白。所提出的方法包括四个步骤，包括定量和定性分析。首先，需要确定将要研究的受全球环境变化影响的社会生态系统。例如，这可能是干旱地区的农民，沿海地区的城市人口以及热带地区的依赖森林的人。接下来，需要定义影响社会生态系统中脆弱性的核心维度。随后，选择一组反映这些核心维度的空间明确指标。聚类分析用于对指标数据进行分组。发现的集群称为脆弱性概况，描述了在所研究的社会生态系统中造成脆弱性的条件和过程的不同典型分组，并提供了它们的空间分布。这些配置文件的解释和验证是分析的最后一步。我们通过分析干旱地区（小农）农民的脆弱性模式来说明该方法的应用。我们确定了干旱地区的八个不同的脆弱性概况，这些概况共同提供了正在发生的不同过程的全球概况以及其分布的国家以下详细信息。通过用特定的结果指示符（例如冲突发生或迁移）覆盖这些分布图的空间分布，该方法还可用于更好地理解这些现象。下一步，将对漏洞概况进行分析，以此为基础来确定减少漏洞的对策，例如，促进在不同地点之间减少漏洞的最佳实践的转移。

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