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Flood exposure and settlement expansion since pre-industrial times in 1850 until 2011 in north Bavaria, Germany

机译:自1850年的工业化时期到2011年,德国北部巴伐利亚的洪灾暴露和住区扩张

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During the past century, land use change, such as settlement development and intensification of agriculture, has led to a decreased capacity of natural floodplains to provide flood regulation across large areas of Europe. The expansion of built-up areas in flood zones has reduced retention areas, potentially leading to an increase of downstream flood risk and an increased demand for flood regulation measures. The goal of this paper was to analyse the historic development of settlements from the 1850s until 2011 in relation to flood exposure in the upper reaches of the river Main, Germany. The settlement area of pre-industrial times was derived from historical land cover maps with the aid of object-based classification. Current settlement areas were extracted from the real estate map of Bavaria. Topographic and flood exposure variables were utilized for the statistical analysis of settlement change. Results showed a strong increase in settlements in all administrative districts of the case study area since the 1850s. The total built-up area within the flooding zone of the investigated section of the Main river increased almost fivefold. Such expansion of settlement into the natural floodplains indicates a high growth in demand for flood regulation. Furthermore, our results suggest that flood exposure affected site selection of settlement in the past much stronger than it does today. Technical flood control (e.g. channels, dams and retention areas) reduced the area of settlement at risk for many towns in the case study region, but for some, it remains remarkably high.
机译:在过去的一个世纪中,土地利用的变化,例如定居点的发展和农业集约化,导致天然洪泛区在欧洲大部分地区提供洪水调节的能力下降。洪水区建筑面积的扩大减少了保留面积,可能导致下游洪灾风险增加以及对洪水调节措施的需求增加。本文的目的是分析1850年代至2011年定居点与德国Main河上游的洪水暴露相关的历史发展。工业前时代的定居区域是借助基于对象的分类从历史土地覆盖图得出的。当前的居住区摘自巴伐利亚的房地产地图。地形和洪水暴露变量用于沉降变化的统计分析。结果表明,自1850年代以来,案例研究区的所有行政区的定居点都大大增加。梅因河调查段洪水区的总建筑面积几乎增加了五倍。居民点向自然洪泛区的这种扩展表明对洪水监管的需求高增长。此外,我们的结果表明,过去,洪水暴露对居民点选择的影响远大于今天。技术性防洪措施(例如河道,水坝和保留区)减少了案例研究区域中许多城镇的定居面积,但对于某些城镇而言,定居面积仍然很高。

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