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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data: examples from Southern Australia
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Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data: examples from Southern Australia

机译：根据长期海洋哺乳动物和海鸟数据确定趋势和环境驱动因素：南澳大利亚的例子

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Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species' responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables.
机译：人们公认气候变化是海洋顶级捕食者的新威胁，但要获得影响的证据通常很困难。有证据表明，在澳大利亚东南部一个海洋全球变暖热点地区，气候变化将深刻影响针脚和海鸟。可获得长期数据系列，以评估某些物种对气候的反应。研究人员测量了各种时间和种群变量，例如产蛋日期，雏鸡或幼崽的产量，特定菌落的丰度和繁殖成功。在这里，我们考虑了使用最初为其他目的而收集的长期数据序列，以及在环境变化和可变性驱动下如何准确评估海洋捕食者数据趋势的挑战。过去，许多有关时间变化和环境驱动因素的研究都使用线性分析，并且我们证明了趋势的大小，变异性和检测线性趋势所需的数据序列持续时间之间的（理论上）关系。但是，物种可能以非线性方式对环境变化做出反应，并且基于对澳大利亚东南部时间序列的分析，似乎经常违反线性模型的假设，尤其是对于种群规模的度量。常用的人口统计学变量表现出不同程度的变化，这影响了检测气候信号的能力。由于它们通常具有较低的逐年变异性，因此我们说明，对质量和育种年表等变量进行监视应比在育种成功和种群数量的观察中更早地检测到时间趋势。因此，从相对较短的时间内的监测程序中确定气候变化的时间变化，需要对生物学变量进行先验选择。

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