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How will subalpine conifer distributions be affected by climate change? Impact assessment for spatial conservation planning

机译：气候变化将如何影响亚高山针叶树的分布？空间保护规划的影响评估

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摘要

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on keystone subalpine conifers, Tsuga diversifolia and Abies veitchii, incorporating the uncertainties of general circulation models (GCMs) for spatial conservation planning in Japan. Potential habitats for T. diversifolia and A. veitchii under current and 20 GCMs in 2080-2100 were predicted using generalized additive models. We counted the number of GCMs under which current potential habitat was predicted to lose by a spatial unit and used them as indices of vulnerability and prediction uncertainty. Gaps between protected areas and potential habitats under the future climates were identified. Reasonably accurate models revealed that T. diversifolia and A. veitchii require cool and wet summers with low winter precipitation. Only less than 1 % of current potential habitats for the species were predicted to be sustainable with low GCMs-related uncertainties. Most of these cer­tainly sustainable habitats were designated as protected areas. Of current potential habitats for T. diversifolia and A. veitchii, 88 and 97 % were predicted to be non-habitats under future climates with low GCMs-related uncertainties. These certainly vulnerable habitats included the southern and low elevated northern range limits of the species, of which 70 % were designated as protected areas. These results suggest that subalpine conifers are vulnerable to the climate change irrespective of GCMs variation. Strength­ening of monitoring may be necessary, especially at unprotected and certainly vulnerable habitats in lower subalpine areas where influences of the climate change will appear first. Active management including assisted regen­eration may be necessary for preserving the vulnerable and genetically endemic populations.
机译：这项研究的目的是评估气候变化对主要的亚高山针叶树，Tsuga diversifolia和Abies veitchii的影响，并结合了日本用于自然保护规划的一般环流模型（GCM）的不确定性。使用广义加性模型预测了2080-2100年当前和20 GCM下的T. diversifolia和A. veitchii的潜在生境。我们计算了按空间单位预测当前潜在栖息地将丧失的GCM数量，并将其用作脆弱性和预测不确定性的指标。确定了未来气候下保护区与潜在栖息地之间的差距。合理准确的模型表明，T。diversifolia和A. veitchii要求凉爽湿润的夏季，冬季降水少。据预测，该物种目前仅有不到1％的潜在栖息地具有可持续性，且与GCM相关的不确定性较低。这些肯定可持续的生境大多数都被指定为保护区。在未来的气候下，T。diversifolia和A. veitchii的潜在栖息地中，有88％和97％被预测为非栖息地，且与GCMs相关的不确定性较低。这些自然脆弱的栖息地包括该物种的南部和北部升高幅度较低的区域，其中70％被指定为保护区。这些结果表明，不论GCM的变化如何，亚高山针叶树都容易受到气候变化的影响。可能有必要加强监测，尤其是在下亚高山地区无保护的，肯定是脆弱的栖息地，那里首先出现气候变化的影响。为了保护脆弱的和遗传流行的人群，可能需要积极管理，包括辅助再生。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2015年第2期|393-404|共12页
  • 作者

    Ikutaro Tsuyama; Motoki Higa; Katsuhiro Nakao; Tetsuya Matsui; Masahiro Horikawa; Nobuyuki Tanaka;

  • 作者单位

    Hokkaido Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Toyohira-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0628516, Japan;

    Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Faculty of Science, Kochi University, 2-5-1 Akebono-cho, Kochi 7808520, Japan;

    Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058687, Japan;

    Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058687, Japan;

    Toyota Biotechnology and Afforestation Laboratory, Toyota Motor Corporation, 1099 Aza Marune, Oaza Kurozasa, Miyosi-cho, Nishikamo-gun, Aichi 4700201, Japan;

    Hokkaido Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Toyohira-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0628516, Japan;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Tsuga diversifolia; Abies veitchii; Potential habitat; Adaptation measures; Natural parks and reserves; Gap analysis;

    机译：中华冷杉潜在的栖息地;适应措施;天然公园和保护区;缺口分析;

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