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Projections of climate change impacts on floods and droughts in Germany using an ensemble of climate change scenarios

机译：使用气候变化情景合集预测气候变化对德国的洪水和干旱的影响

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Under a warming climate, changes in hydrological extremes may be more significant than changes in hydrological mean conditions. Due to the high risk of damage and the increasing trends of floods and droughts in Germany, the potential changes in hydrological extreme events are of high importance. However, projections of extreme events particularly for floods are associated with large uncertainties and depend on climate scenarios. If only a few scenarios are applied, there is a danger that the impact assessment is biased. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a set of climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES project for flood and drought projections and to detect the robust changes using the eco-hydrological model SWIM in five large river basins covering 90 % of the German territory. The study shows that there is a moderate certainty that most German rivers will experience more extreme 50-year floods and more frequent occurrences of 50-year droughts. Projected changes with a high certainty include an increasing trend of floods in the Elbe basin and more frequent extreme droughts in the Rhine basin in 2061-2100. Wetter conditions, i.e., more extreme floods and less frequent droughts, are projected for the alpine rivers in 2021-2060. Using only those RCMs for impact assessments that perform best in the reference period does not guarantee more consistent and certain future projections. Hence, the use of the whole ensemble of available scenarios is necessary to quantify the "full" range of uncertainties corresponding to the current state of knowledge and assuring the robustness of projected change patterns.
机译：在气候变暖的情况下，水文极限的变化可能比水文平均状况的变化更为显着。由于德国遭受破坏的风险很高，而且洪水和干旱的趋势在不断增加，因此水文极端事件的潜在变化非常重要。但是，对极端事件（尤其是洪水）的预测会带来很大的不确定性，并取决于气候情景。如果仅应用几种情况，则存在影响评估有偏差的危险。这项研究旨在评估ENSEMBLES项目对洪水和干旱预测的一系列气候情景的效果，并使用生态水文模型SWIM在覆盖90％的德国领土的五个大型流域中检测出强劲的变化。研究表明，可以肯定地说，大多数德国河流将经历更极端的50年洪水和50年以上干旱的频繁发生。可以高度肯定地预测到的变化包括易北河盆地洪水的增加趋势以及2061-2100年莱茵河流域的更频繁的极端干旱。预计2021-2060年的高山河流将有较湿的条件，即更极端的洪水和较少的干旱。仅使用那些在参考期内效果最好的RCM进行影响评估并不能保证更一致和未来的某些预测。因此，必须使用整个可用情景集合来量化与知识的当前状态相对应的不确定性的“完整”范围，并确保预测的变化模式的鲁棒性。

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