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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps
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Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps

机译：冰川对意大利西北部西北地区当前气候变化和未来情景的反应

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We analyze longtime series of annual snout positions of several valley glaciers in the northwestern Italian Alps, together with a high-resolution gridded dataset of temperature and precipitation available for the last 50 years. Glacier snout fluctuations are on average negative during this time span, albeit with a period of glacier advance between about 1970 and 1990. To determine which climatic variables best correlate with glacier snout fluctuations, we consider a large set of seasonal predictors, based on our climatic dataset, and determine the most significant drivers by a stepwise regression technique. This in-depth screening indicates that the average glacier snout fluctuations strongly respond to summer temperature and winter precipitation variations, with a delay of 5 and 10 year, respectively. Snout fluctuations display also a significant (albeit weak) response to concurrent (same year) spring temperature and precipitation conditions. A linear regressive model based on these four climatic variables explains up to 93 % of the variance, which becomes 89 % when only the two delayed variables are taken into account. When employed for out-of-sample projections, the empirical model displays high prediction skill, and it is thus used to estimate the average glacier response to different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B), using both global and regional climate models. In all cases, glacier snout fluctuations display a negative trend, and the glaciers of this region display an accelerated retreat, leading to a further regression of the snout position. By 2050, the retreat is estimated to be between about 300 and 400 m with respect to the current position. Glacier regression is more intense for the RCP8.5 and A IB scenarios, as it could be expected from the higher severity of these emission pathways.
机译：我们分析了意大利西北部阿尔卑斯山几个山谷冰川的长期口鼻部位置系列，以及过去50年可获得的高分辨率栅格化温度和降水量栅格数据集。尽管这段时间是在1970年至1990年之间的一段冰川发展期，但冰川鼻子波动在这一时间段内平均为负值。为了确定哪些气候变量与冰川鼻子波动最相关，我们根据我们的气候来考虑大量的季节预测因子数据集，并通过逐步回归技术确定最重要的驱动因素。这项深入的筛选表明，平均冰川鼻子波动强烈响应夏季温度和冬季降水变化，分别延迟了5年和10年。口鼻部的波动也显示出对同时发生的（同一年）春季温度和降水条件的显着响应（尽管较弱）。基于这四个气候变量的线性回归模型最多可解释93％的方差，如果仅考虑两个延迟变量，则该方差将变为89％。当用于样本外预测时，该经验模型显示出很高的预测能力，因此可使用全球和全球经验模型来估计对不同气候变化情景（RCP4.5，RCP8.5，A1B）的平均冰川响应。区域气候模型。在所有情况下，冰川的鼻子波动都显示出负趋势，并且该地区的冰川显示出加速的退缩，导致鼻子位置进一步退缩。到2050年，相对于当前位置，撤退估计在300至400 m之间。对于RCP8.5和A IB情景，冰川退缩更为强烈，因为这些排放途径的严重程度可能较高。

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